ADVANCED BRACTON – OUTSTANDING CORRELATION TO ACTUAL RESULTS

Yesterday we reported on the ability of the Advanced Bracton Calculation to prognosticate conference ranks based on our assumptions for an NHL season.  Even though these results were mixed, we have just finished a preliminary review of our model retrospectively against actual outcomes.  While the numbers are still not yet final, it appears as if the Advanced Bracton will be above 0.90 for the eastern conference and over 0.65 in the west.  We are most pleased with this result – it makes the third consecutive year of extremely high scores.

Not to jump the gun, but it is possible that the delta between prospective and retrospective numbers is likely due to a number of factors; limited data available on net penalty margin for first year or foreign players (see the Pittsburgh Penguins), the impact of a goaltending on an otherwise horrendous possession team (see Carey Price), and the impact of intangibles such as injuries and other circumstances that can make or break an entire team (see Max Pacioretty, Zach Parise, and Mark Giordano).

Stay tuned, but we will be out with final predictions for playoff matchups tomorrow.  Again preliminarily, we think TB, PIT, WAS and FLA will win their series in east while CHI, MIN, SJ and NSH are our picks in the west.

 

 

 

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