Preseason predictions for the first quarter

It is hard to believe but a quarter of the 2018-19 NHL season is in the books.  At this juncture, we wanted to review our preseason predictions in the context of a statistical rank calculation (as is our custom).

We have posted a 0.28 in the east (which would be a 0.55 if we swapped PHI and BUF +1.0 would be perfectly predictive…….like our retrospective calculations).  This is a little more than slightly positive correlation between predictions and actual.  It would be exceptionally good if BUF had not won 10 games in a row and PHI continued the momentum of last season to this season.

Out west, we are at a very respectable 0.40.  We view this as somewhat predictive with respect to our numbers.  The 0.40 number would be far higher if not for the relative success of CGY and the injury to Jonathan Quick in LA.

In assessing these numbers, we are reminded that although the magnitude of change year over year is what we are seeking to measure, we are also aware that direction (better or worse) is also critical in gauging the veracity of statistics such as the Advanced Bracton.  In all we have been spot on in most cases with respect to whether a team has improved or declined from last year……have a look

What sticks out most to us is out call of the improvement of teams like the Buffalo Sabres (we knew they would be better but holy Jeff Skinner!), Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa and Minnesota and the relative fall of Vegas, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston,  and Los Angeles.  While we may not have been able to precisely quantify the magnitude of the change yet, the trending direction seems to be accurate so far.  This is a very interesting tidbit to us and we will be doing more work in this area in coming columns.

 

 

One response to “Preseason predictions for the first quarter

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