The longest off-season in sports ends tonight.  The 2018-19 season is upon us. What follows is a table outlining our predictions for the upcoming season.

Before getting to our model, we would like to alert you to our attempts at fine-tuning our statistics.  While much of our prognostication still amounts to guesswork (especially for players for whom we have no/little data), we think we have become at least slightly better at understanding what a replacement player would contribute versus someone who scores poorly on our mistake minimization scale, also known as the Advanced Bracton Score.  Addition by subtraction can be a powerful thing; so much so that….and here comes the shocker…….teams like OTT, BUF, MTL FLA, NYI and NYR, VAN and EDM have actually improved over their results of last year, in some cases vastly.

Obviously general managers of failing teams would at least attempt to stabilize their ships.  While complete rebuilds take many seasons, assembling a competitive (but still losing team) can be accomplished rather quickly.  We have found this to be especially true if there are obvious eyesores in the mistake department……getting rid of guys who are in the bottom third of our scale is always a great place to start since they can ALWAYS be replaced (often times for less money).  Speaking of which, the removal of one or two players who score at the bottom of our scales seems to be a popular theme these days.  Even if GM’s across the league are not reading our site daily, they have received the memo; doing bad things is not as good as doing good things.  Duh.

Digressions aside, the following are our predictions for the year!!

Team Before After Change
Boston Bruins 54.09 27.75 -26.335858
Tampa Bay Lightning 39.57 20.45 -19.124616
Toronto Maple Leafs 10.5 15.52 5.02288644
Columbus Blue Jackets 6.86 9.53 2.67267613
Philadelphia Flyers 6.61 2.93 -3.6790956
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.3 -9.05 -7.7507955
New Jersey Devils -8.17 -9.52 -1.3452053
Washington Capitals -5.49 -16.44 -10.949902
Florida Panthers -34.19 -21.38 12.8078728
Carolina Hurricanes -31.35 -24.85 6.50484163
Buffalo Sabres -80.67 -36.60 44.0746942
New York Islanders -47.51 -39.46 8.04739204
Ottawa Senators -75.78 -42.78 32.9989008
New York Rangers -61.37 -49.52 11.8455909
Montreal Canadiens -79.01 -53.66 25.345382
Detroit Red Wings -65.73 -80.64 -14.914324
Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4
Team Before After Change
Nashville Predators 26.99 34.78 7.79394537
Winnipeg Jets 21.86 27.07 5.21104976
Minnesota Wild -5.65 9.64 15.2919793
Vegas Golden Knights 33.59 3.80 -29.790686
Anaheim Ducks 8.5 0.48 -8.0175698
Los Angeles Kings 14.8 -2.73 -17.534899
St Louis Blues -6.43 -9.91 -3.4794387
San Jose Sharks 2.89 -17.75 -20.641907
Colorado Avalanche 6.01 -23.04 -29.049564
Edmonton Oilers -51.58 -25.50 26.0814774
Vancouver Canucks -71.93 -28.01 43.9183983
Dallas Stars -17.79 -28.77 -10.983119
Calgary Flames -46.03 -42.06 3.97180927
Chicago Blackhawks -24.4 -47.32 -22.917591
Arizona Coyotes -50.61 -48.91 1.69791211

We will be providing much more analysis of what we think will happen this season in forthcoming articlesGC7Cc3Ds_bigger.  Stay tuned particularly in the next few days.


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