Western retrospective rho 0.95!!

We have been painstakingly calculating our retrospective stats for both conferences.  We are still working on the east.  However we have concluded our analysis of the western conference.  The Advanced Bracton Score, when tabulated against actual conference rank was 0.952 retrospectively predictive!!

What that means is that teams that excel within our metrics fare better than those that do not.  While that may seem obvious, we cannot understate that managements and coaching staffs who value players who minimize mistakes win hockey games.  And, according to our model, they do so in a manner which is almost 100% accurate at least in one conference this season (and has been impressively as spot on in prior seasons, as we have documented here).

NOTE – on Monday we eyeballed playoff matchups with respect to possible winners. Since we now have the data in the west, and will publish on the east soon, the first round teams and scores are as follows

MIN         45.46
CHI         17.27
STL           6.47
SJ           1.98
ANA           0.89
EDM         (7.30)
NSH      (13.68)
CGY      (20.40)

We have enjoyed astounding accuracy in years past with respect to the outcomes of playoff series using the Advanced Bracton metric.  The team with the higher score invariably prevails in playoff series.  When compared to the rest of the hockey pundits, this especially so.  Therefore, given the above data, and irrespective of last nights results, our predictions are as follows

MIN over STL

SJ over EDM

CHI over NSH

ANA over CGY

We will readjust after the first round is complete. Stay tuned for our eastern conference results as they become available in the next week or so.





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