The 2026-2027 NHL season opens Tuesday night, and after one of the most active offseasons in recent memory, the league looks as balanced as it has in years. Florida, the last team to win back-to-back Stanley Cups, missed the playoffs entirely last season. Toronto and Los Angeles changed coaches and general managers, the salary cap jumped to $104 million, and a wave of stars changed teams, from Brady Tkachuk joining his brother in Florida to Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou landing in Washington.

To make sense of it all, hockeyfreeforall.com built a full preseason projection model powered by AB. It projects every team’s point total, simulates the season 10,000 times, seeds the playoffs using the NHL’s format, and produces playoff odds for all 32 teams. The results point to a tightly packed league with one clear favorite: the Washington Capitals, who hold the best playoff odds in the NHL, project as the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and are this website’s pick to win the Stanley Cup.

How the Model Works

The projection begins with the players. For every player on every roster, the model projects his 2026-2027 NHL AB Score based on his last three seasons, his career average, his age, and the leagues he played in. That player model was trained on every real case of a player entering an NHL season, so it learns how AB Scores typically rise, peak, and decline over a career. Prospects and players arriving from other leagues are placed on the same scale through their quality-adjusted AB Scores.

Next, the model builds each team’s dressed lineup, the top 12 forwards and top six defensemen by projected AB. Because injuries are inevitable, the next two forwards and the next defenseman count at half weight as depth. Any empty lineup spot, such as a thin roster or an unproven rookie, is filled at replacement level, defined as the 20th percentile of recent NHL seasons at that position.

Lineup strength alone doesn’t capture everything. Goaltending, coaching, and team systems consistently push certain teams above or below what their skaters would suggest. To account for that, the model measures how many points each team has earned above or below its AB-based expectation over the last three seasons, and the backtest determines how much weight that team effect deserves.

That backtest is what makes the projections realistic. For every full season since 2010, the model rebuilt each team exactly as it would build a 2026-2027 roster, using only data that would have been available before that season, and calibrated the relationship between projected lineup strength and actual points. Finally, the season is simulated 10,000 times. Rather than relying on a single point total, those simulations produce each team’s playoff odds and projected seed, and the playoff picture is built from the odds, so the teams most likely to reach the postseason are the ones placed in it. That’s where the real value of the model lies. Projected point totals are compressed toward the middle by design, since the model can’t anticipate which teams will get hot or stay healthy, so the order of the standings and each team’s playoff odds tell a far more useful story than the exact number of points.

The Playoff Odds Table

The first thing that stands out is the parity. Only one team, Washington, carries playoff odds above 72%, and no team falls below 26%. In the Eastern Conference, the gap between the second wild card spot (Toronto, 45%) and the 16th-place team (Columbus, 35%) is just ten percentage points. Nearly every team in the conference has a realistic path to the postseason, and a few bounces could reshape the entire playoff picture.

Eastern Conference

The Atlantic Division projects to be the most competitive in hockey. Montreal projects as the A1 seed with 66% playoff odds behind Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson, and Juraj Slafkovsky, followed closely by Tampa Bay (A2, 65%) and Ottawa (A3, 58%), despite the Senators losing captain Brady Tkachuk. Boston claims the first wild card spot at 53%, and Toronto earns the second at 45%, driven by an aggressive offseason that added Darren Raddysh, Sergei Bobrovsky, and first overall pick Gavin McKenna. Florida (44%) and Detroit (42%) sit just behind the Leafs, separated by only a few percentage points, and Buffalo (38%) rounds out the division after losing Tuch.

The Metropolitan Division belongs to Washington, whose 78% playoff odds lead the entire league and make the Capitals the M1 seed. Carolina (M2, 66%) remains one of the most consistent teams in hockey, and New Jersey claims the M3 spot at 45%, rewarding a strong first offseason from Sunny Mehta. Behind them, Philadelphia (43%), the Islanders (42%), the Rangers (41%), and Pittsburgh (40%) are separated by just three percentage points, while Columbus (35%) finishes last in the division despite committing $13.75 million per season to Adam Fantilli.

Western Conference

Colorado projects as the C1 seed and owns the best playoff odds in the West at 72%, with Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon anchoring one of the league’s most complete rosters. Dallas (C2) and Nashville (C3) share identical 61% odds, with Nashville’s projection reflecting a surprisingly strong roster despite moving Luke Evangelista to New Jersey. Minnesota takes the first wild card spot at 59%, as Quinn Hughes’ first full season in a Wild uniform should keep them firmly in the race, and St. Louis grabs the second at 54%, edging Winnipeg (53%) by a single percentage point. Utah (42%) and Chicago (27%) project to miss, with Connor Bedard’s shoulder surgery likely costing the Blackhawks valuable ground early.

The Pacific Division is the league’s weakest. Los Angeles projects as the P1 seed with 66% odds, followed by Vegas (P2, 59%) and Edmonton (P3, 54%). Calgary (48%) and Anaheim (46%) remain within striking distance, while Vancouver (38%), San Jose (33%), and Seattle (26%) fall further back, with the Kraken holding the lowest playoff odds in the league.

The Playoff Picture

In the East, the model projects Washington to defeat Toronto in the first round, then Carolina in a second-round Metropolitan Division battle. On the other side of the bracket, Montreal outlasts Boston and Tampa Bay, setting up an Eastern Conference Final between the Capitals and Canadiens. Washington advances to the Stanley Cup Final.

In the West, Colorado defeats St. Louis and Dallas, while Los Angeles finally breaks through by beating Minnesota and Vegas. The Avalanche then defeat the Kings in the Western Conference Final, setting up a Stanley Cup Final between Washington and Colorado. The model projects the Capitals as champions.

Why Washington?

The Capitals’ projection might surprise some fans after the way last season ended. Washington went 43-30-9 in 2025-2026, finished fourth in the Metropolitan Division, and missed the playoffs, just one season after finishing second in the entire NHL and winning the division. However, even that disappointing team had ten more regulation wins than Philadelphia, which made the playoffs ahead of them. Then Washington had arguably the most aggressive offseason in the league.

On June 23rd, the Capitals acquired Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis for Connor McMichael, prospect Milton Gastrin, and the 16th overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. The next day, they acquired Alex Tuch from Buffalo in a sign-and-trade for David Kampf and a 2027 third-round pick, after Tuch signed an eight-year, $84 million contract. Washington also added Boone Jenner and defenseman Vincent Desharnais, and on July 2nd, Alex Ovechkin announced he would return for his 22nd NHL season.

Tuch is the headline addition. The 30-year-old posted 33 goals and 66 points last season, good for a 3.39 AB Score, and has now scored 30 goals in three of the last four seasons. His AB trajectory has been remarkably steady since his breakout, peaking at 3.98 in 2022-2023 and remaining above 2.9 every season since. He also brings a two-way game that has earned him Selke Trophy votes in each of the last two seasons.

His $10.5 million contract takes 10.1% of this season’s cap, slightly above AB’s projection of $9.62 million, or 9.25% of the cap. However, that premium disappears almost immediately. Next season, the same contract will take just 9.25% of the $113.5 million cap, exactly matching his projected share, and if the cap reaches the projected $127.5 million in 2028-2029, the deal will take only 8.2%. His career comparables, Travis Konecny (9.9%) and Vladimir Tarasenko, sit in the same range. The long-term risk of an eight-year deal for a 30-year-old is real, but in the short term, Tuch is exactly the type of player a contender needs.

Kyrou is the bigger bet. His 2025-2026 season was a down year, with 18 goals, 46 points, and a 2.03 AB Score. That came one season after he scored 36 goals and 70 points with a 3.70 AB Score, and his career peak of 3.91 came in 2021-2022. His $8.125 million contract took 9.8% of the cap when he signed it in 2022, and now takes 7.8%. The model projects his value at $7.03 million, or 6.76% of the cap, a premium of roughly $1.1 million. His 2025-2026 comparables, Timo Meier (10.5%) and Brock Boeser (7.6%), both signed for a larger share of the cap than Kyrou currently occupies. If Kyrou returns even halfway to his 2024-2025 form, Washington will have acquired a top-six winger at a fair price.

The biggest reason for Washington’s projection is depth. The Capitals have 14 players above the 1.17 replacement level, more than any team examined on this website this offseason. Tuch (3.39) leads the way, followed by Tom Wilson (2.94), Jakob Chychrun (2.91), Aliaksei Protas (2.72), Ovechkin (2.70), and Dylan Strome (2.53). Behind them, Ryan Leonard (2.12), Kyrou (2.03), Justin Sourdif (1.95), and Boone Jenner (1.63) give Washington legitimate scoring depth throughout the lineup, while Martin Fehervary (1.43), Anthony Beauvillier (1.34), Rasmus Sandin (1.30), and Ethen Frank (1.23) all clear the threshold as well. Matt Roy (1.14) sits just below it.

Notably, 40-year-old Ovechkin remains a legitimate top-six contributor. He led the Capitals with 32 goals last season, extending his NHL-record career total to 929, and his 2.70 AB Score still ranks fifth on the roster.

The salary picture is just as encouraging. Ovechkin’s $4.25 million deal is the best value on the team, as AB projects him at $10.63 million, a surplus of more than $6.3 million. Justin Sourdif ($0.82 million against a $4.87 million projection), Aliaksei Protas ($3.38 million against $7.11 million), Dylan Strome ($5.00 million against $8.51 million), and Ryan Leonard ($0.95 million against $4.41 million) each provide more than $3.4 million in surplus value. In total, the roster generates roughly $28 million in surplus value. The overpayments, concentrated in Desharnais, Jenner, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyrou, and Roy, total roughly $9 million. Netting those numbers out, Washington’s roster produces about $19 million more in on-ice value than it costs, one of the healthiest cap structures in the league.

Spencer Carbery Behind the Bench

The final piece is coaching. Spencer Carbery, the 2025 Jack Adams Award winner, ranks ninth in the AB Coaches study with a Coaching AB of 0.5890 and Dean Evason as his closest comparable. His sample is limited to three seasons, reflected in a 60.1 confidence rating, but his numbers are excellent across the board.

Carbery’s Return IMP %, the percentage of returning players who improve in consecutive seasons under him, sits at 58.1%, well above both the study average of 47.0% and the Top 10 average of 51.8%. His Advantage %, the percentage of players who improve under him relative to their previous coach, is 56.4%, nearly matching the Top 10 average of 56.7%. His Average Range Score of 0.941 also exceeds the Top 10 average of 0.857. In other words, players get better under Carbery both in their first season with him and in the seasons that follow. For a team adding Tuch, Kyrou, and Jenner while relying on the continued development of Leonard and Sourdif, that’s precisely the coaching profile Washington needs.

The Florida Panthers: A Champion on the Bubble

The projection that will likely draw the most attention is Florida missing the playoffs for a second straight season. Just two years removed from back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2024 and 2025, the Panthers went 40-38-4 last season and finished seventh in the Atlantic after injuries decimated the roster. Aleksander Barkov missed the entire season after ACL and MCL surgeries on his right knee, Matthew Tkachuk missed the first 47 games following offseason surgery, and Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand, and Anton Lundell all missed time as well.

Florida responded with an aggressive offseason. On June 21st, the Panthers acquired Brady Tkachuk from Ottawa, uniting him with his older brother, and added Garnet Hathaway from Philadelphia and Radko Gudas from Anaheim. Barkov has also shown he’s healthy, captaining Finland to a gold medal at the 2026 World Championship and earning a spot on the tournament All-Star team. However, the Panthers also moved on from Sergei Bobrovsky, who started every playoff game of both championship runs, replacing him with Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid.

Brady Tkachuk brings exactly what Florida’s identity is built around. The 6’4″, 225-pound winger posted 59 points and a 2.80 AB Score in 2025-2026, rebounding from a 2.33 the year before, and his career peak of 3.64 came in 2022-2023. His $8.21 million contract took roughly 10.0% of the cap when he signed it in 2022, and now takes just 7.9% of this season’s cap. AB projects his value at $9.36 million, 9.0% of the cap, giving Florida more than $1.1 million in surplus value. His comparables confirm it, as Jesper Bratt signed at 9.4% of the cap, Filip Forsberg at 10.3%, and Alexis Lafreniere at 8.5%.

The forward group remains one of the best in the league. Barkov (3.33) leads the roster, followed by Brady Tkachuk (2.80), Reinhart (2.46), Marchand (2.23), Carter Verhaeghe (2.20), and Sam Bennett (2.16). Lundell (1.88), Eetu Luostarinen (1.69), and Matthew Tkachuk (1.47) also clear the 1.17 replacement level, giving Florida nine forwards above the line. Matthew Tkachuk’s score is suppressed by his shortened 2025-2026 season, and he’s a strong candidate to outperform it with a full, healthy year.

The problem is the blue line. Seth Jones (1.34) is the only Florida defenseman above replacement level. Gustav Forsling (1.01) and Aaron Ekblad (0.86) sit just below it, while Gudas (0.36), Niko Mikkola (0.36), Alexander Petrovic (0.18), Donovan Sebrango (negative 0.08), and Dmitry Kulikov (negative 0.29) sit well below it. Florida’s championship teams were built on deep, physical forward groups, but they were also backed by a defense and a goaltender who could suppress chances. The model has real questions about both heading into this season.

Financially, the Panthers remain in good shape. Barkov ($10.00 million against a $13.01 million projection), Reinhart ($8.62 million against $10.62 million), and Lundell ($5.00 million against $6.87 million) lead a roster that generates roughly $17.4 million in surplus value. The overpayments are concentrated in Seth Jones ($9.50 million against $5.80 million), Niko Mikkola ($5.00 million against $3.38 million), Sam Bennett ($8.00 million against $6.55 million), and Hathaway ($2.40 million against $1.07 million), totaling roughly $8.8 million. The net result is a roster producing about $8.6 million more in value than it costs.

Behind the bench, Paul Maurice ranks 28th in the AB Coaches study with a Coaching AB of 0.5285 and a 99.3 confidence rating, built on one of the longest careers in the study, with Barry Trotz as his closest comparable. His Advantage % of 52.8% and Average Player AB of 1.159 both sit above the study averages of 49.1% and 0.961, though his Return IMP % of 42.5% trails the study average of 47.0%. His two Stanley Cups in Florida speak for themselves.

Put together, the model places Florida just outside the playoff picture with 44% odds, one percentage point behind Toronto for the final wild card spot. A healthy Barkov, a full season from Matthew Tkachuk, and a steady year from Markstrom could easily flip that projection, and no team in the league would be less surprising to see make a deep playoff run. But until the blue line and goaltending prove otherwise, the Atlantic is simply too crowded to assume Florida gets back in.

Conclusion

The 2026-2027 season projects to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Just ten percentage points separate the final wild card spot from last place in the Eastern Conference, the Pacific Division remains wide open, and teams like Florida and Toronto sit right on the playoff line. As always, a model is only a starting point, and injuries, goaltending, and midseason trades will reshape these standings over the next six months.

However, one team stands out above the rest. The Washington Capitals combine elite depth, a roster generating roughly $19 million in surplus value, two new top-six wingers, a future Hall of Famer chasing one more championship, and one of the top coaches in the AB Coaches study. According to the AB projections, that combination makes Washington the best team in the NHL and the favorite to hoist the Stanley Cup in June.