When the ping-pong balls bounced Toronto’s way at the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, the Maple Leafs landed the most hyped prospect of the draft class at the exact moment the franchise needed him most. Toronto was coming off a 32-36-14 season that ended eighth in the Atlantic Division and outside the playoffs, a collapse that cost General Manager Brad Treliving and head coach Craig Berube their jobs. On June 26th in Buffalo, the Leafs selected Gavin McKenna first overall, and one week later, he signed a three-year entry-level contract carrying a $1.075 million cap hit, just 1.03% of this season’s $104 million cap.

The expectations are enormous. McKenna has openly said that winning the Calder Trophy would make for a pretty good first season, and new General Manager John Chayka has made it clear that McKenna’s development is tied directly to the organization’s plan to win now. He is also being asked to help fill the void left by Mitch Marner, who was the NHL’s eighth-leading scorer across his nine seasons in Toronto before leaving in free agency in 2025.

The AB data suggests McKenna is ready. According to the AB projections, he will be an above-replacement player as a rookie, and the Maple Leafs project to earn the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, with a full breakdown coming in hockeyfreeforall.com’s upcoming preseason predictions. McKenna is also this website’s pick to win the Calder Trophy. The sections below explain why.

The Resume

McKenna’s path to the NHL has been one of the most decorated of any prospect in recent memory. He was the first Yukon-born player ever selected first overall in the WHL Bantam Draft, taken by the Medicine Hat Tigers in 2022. As a 14 and 15-year-old in 2022-2023, he recorded 19 points in 20 WHL games. The following season, he exploded for 102 points in 66 games.

His 2024-2025 season was historic. McKenna led the entire Canadian Hockey League with 129 points (41 goals, 88 assists) in 56 games, was named CHL Player of the Year, and added 38 points in 16 playoff games to lead Medicine Hat to a WHL Championship. Across parts of three WHL seasons, he totaled 79 goals and 244 points in 133 games. Internationally, he won gold with Canada at both the 2024 U18 World Championship and the 2024 Hlinka Gretzky Cup.

McKenna then became one of the first skaters to take advantage of the rule change allowing CHL players to retain NCAA eligibility, joining Penn State for the 2025-2026 season. As the sixth-youngest player in men’s college hockey, he posted 15 goals and 51 points in 35 games, setting Penn State freshman records for assists (36) and points, recorded his first collegiate hat trick against Wisconsin in January, and was named a top-10 finalist for the Hobey Baker Award.

The AB data captures that dominance. McKenna posted a 0.99 AB Score as a 15-year-old in the WHL, then jumped to 4.79 in 2023-2024 and an extraordinary 8.85 in 2024-2025, more than seven times the WHL replacement level of 1.17. His 2.23 AB Score at Penn State, while lower in raw terms, came against significantly older competition and still sat nearly five times above the NCAA replacement level of 0.45.

Across his four pre-NHL seasons, McKenna’s career AB Score averages 4.21, with 335 points in 192 games (1.74 PPG). Once his most recent season is adjusted for league quality, his NHL-equivalent AB sits at +1.63. His prospect comparables, Cole Reschny (+2.07), Liam Greentree (+1.56), Alexander Zharovsky (+1.58), James Hagens (+1.47), and Viggo Bjorck (+1.76), represent some of the most promising young forwards in the world, and McKenna’s four-season track record separates him from all of them.

McKenna vs. Stenberg

The biggest debate leading up to the 2026 draft was whether McKenna or Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg deserved to go first overall. Toronto took McKenna, and San Jose selected Stenberg second.

On a single-season basis, the case for Stenberg was understandable. The Frolunda winger recorded 36 points in 48 SHL games in 2025-2026, a 2.14 AB Score against men in one of the strongest leagues outside the NHL. After adjusting for league quality, his NHL-equivalent AB was +1.66, nearly identical to McKenna’s +1.63 at Penn State.

However, a longer sample tells a very different story. Stenberg’s AB trajectory has been uneven. He posted a 1.05 in the J20 league in 2023-2024 and peaked at 2.80 in 2024-2025, but his first taste of SHL action that same season produced just a 0.43, below the SHL replacement level of 0.68. McKenna, by contrast, has been dominant at every level he has played. Across their entire pre-NHL careers, McKenna’s average NHL-equivalent AB Score is +2.32, more than three times Stenberg’s +0.74.

Their NHL comparables reflect that gap. Stenberg’s closest matches include Leo Carlsson, Quinton Byfield, Kirby Dach, and Kent Johnson, and the group’s projected NHL outcome over its first three seasons is 1.36 AB. McKenna’s comparables include Tim Stutzle, who has averaged a 3.11 AB Score across six NHL seasons with a peak of 4.19, Matt Boldy (3.17 average, 4.30 peak), and Trevor Zegras (1.68 average, 2.96 peak). McKenna’s projected NHL outcome is 1.45 AB over his first three seasons, and both players carry a 60% probability of outperforming the NHL average. Both projections clear the 1.17 league replacement level, but the verdict favors McKenna on the NHL-equivalent scale, and Toronto made the right call.

Projecting McKenna’s Rookie Season

To build a realistic points projection for McKenna, hockeyfreeforall.com developed a new projection model this summer, built on the same league data that powers the AB player cards. The model answers one question: based on everything a player has done before reaching the NHL, how many points should he be expected to score in his first season?

The first step is translation. Scoring in the WHL, the NCAA, the SHL, and the NHL are not the same, so every season from 20 professional and junior leagues is converted onto a common NHL-equivalent scale. To build those translation factors, the model studies thousands of players who moved from one league to another in consecutive seasons and compares the points they actually scored in their new league to what their previous scoring rate would have produced. Solving across every league pair at once produces a single factor for each league, representing how many NHL points per game one point per game in that league is worth.

The second step accounts for age. Young players naturally improve from one season to the next, and a teenager’s growth could easily be mistaken for a difference in league quality. The model measures typical year-over-year development at every age from 16 to 35, using players who stayed in the same league, and removes that growth from the league translation.

The third step handles rookies differently than veterans. For established NHL players, the model uses a regression based on their two most recent seasons, age, and position. McKenna has never played an NHL game, so the model uses a comparables approach instead. It searches every first-year NHL player on file and identifies the 12 rookies most similar to McKenna based on four factors: NHL-equivalent scoring in their final two pre-NHL seasons, with the most recent season weighted more heavily; age at debut; draft position; and era, with recent rookies counted slightly more because the modern game is closer to today’s.

The fourth step adjusts each comparable to McKenna’s level. A comparable who entered the league with a slightly weaker pre-NHL profile has his rookie output nudged upward, and one with a slightly stronger profile is nudged downward. The closest matches receive the most weight in the final number, and the spread across all 12 comparables produces a realistic range of outcomes.

Finally, the model was backtested on the last four NHL seasons, projecting every rookie and veteran using only the data available at the time, to confirm that its projections hold up against what actually happened.

The Results

McKenna’s translated scoring tells a story of steady, uninterrupted growth. His pre-NHL seasons convert to NHL-equivalent rates of 0.11 points per game in 2022-2023, 0.18 in 2023-2024, 0.26 in 2024-2025, and 0.31 at Penn State in 2025-2026. He improved every single year, including the move from junior hockey to a college game played largely against men in their early twenties.

Based on 75 games played, the model projects McKenna at 0.59 points per game, or 44 points. The range across his comparables runs from 24 points at the 10th percentile to 67 points at the 90th percentile, with a median comparable of 40 points. His 12 closest comparables are listed below.

Player	Rookie Year	From	Pick	Rookie GP	PTS	PPG	Adj. PPG	Weight
Connor Bedard	2023-24	WHL	1	68	61	0.90	0.91	15%
Macklin Celebrini	2024-25	NCAA	1	70	63	0.90	0.87	14%
Alexis Lafreniere	2020-21	QMJHL	1	56	21	0.38	0.42	10%
Tim Stutzle	2020-21	DEL	3	53	29	0.55	0.59	9%
Jack Hughes	2019-20	USHL	1	61	21	0.34	0.40	9%
Kaapo Kakko	2019-20	Liiga	2	66	23	0.35	0.37	9%
Michael Misa	2025-26	OHL	2	45	21	0.47	0.51	6%
Quinton Byfield	2021-22	AHL	2	40	10	0.25	0.28	6%
Gabe Perreault	2025-26	NCAA	23	49	27	0.55	0.57	6%
Leo Carlsson	2023-24	SHL	2	55	29	0.53	0.54	6%
Adam Fantilli	2023-24	NCAA	3	49	27	0.55	0.52	6%
Logan Cooley	2023-24	NCAA	3	82	44	0.54	0.53	6%

The comparables fall into three distinct tiers. At the top are Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, the two closest matches, who together account for nearly 30% of the projection’s weight. Both jumped straight into the NHL as first overall picks and produced 0.90 points per game as rookies. Notably, McKenna’s final NHL-equivalent rate of 0.31 is higher than Bedard’s 0.29 entering the league and only slightly below Celebrini’s 0.35. Bedard won the Calder Trophy, and Celebrini followed his rookie season with 115 points and a 5.37 AB Score in his second year.

The middle tier, featuring Tim Stutzle, Gabe Perreault, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, and Logan Cooley, produced between 0.53 and 0.59 adjusted points per game as rookies. Every one of those players has since become an important top-six forward for his team, and Carlsson and Fantilli just signed contracts worth $18 million and $13.75 million per season, respectively.

The bottom tier, including Alexis Lafreniere, Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, and Quinton Byfield, reflects how difficult the jump can be even for elite talent. Hughes managed just 21 points in 61 games as a rookie on a struggling New Jersey team before becoming one of the best centers in the league. Lafreniere and Kakko spent their rookie seasons in limited roles on Rangers teams still searching for an identity. These outcomes pull the projection down, and they are the primary reason the model’s baseline of 44 points is conservative.

Why 44 Points Is the Floor

The circumstances surrounding McKenna’s debut look far more like Bedard’s and Celebrini’s than those of the bottom tier. He is expected on the opening night roster, has already seen looks in the top six this preseason, and will play alongside Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and a newly assembled power play led by Darren Raddysh. Head coach Jim Hiller has been careful to say the Leafs won’t rush McKenna, but the opportunity is clearly there.

Recent history also raises the bar. The last three first overall picks to play full rookie seasons were Bedard (61 points in 68 games), Celebrini (63 points in 70 games), and Matthew Schaefer (59 points in 82 games), who won the Calder Trophy last season as an 18-year-old defenseman. That is an average of roughly 61 points, and all three came on teams with far less talent around them than McKenna will have in Toronto.

Taking all of that into account, the most realistic expectation for McKenna is a season in the 55 to 65 point range, at the upper end of his comparables and in line with the three most recent first overall picks. On the AB side, the 1.45 NHL AB projection would place McKenna above the 1.17 replacement level as a rookie. For context, a 2023 hockeyfreeforall.com study found that only six of the fifteen first overall picks in the AB era up to that point posted positive AB Scores as rookies, so producing above-replacement results immediately would put McKenna in elite company.

The Calder Trophy

McKenna enters the 2026-2027 season as hockeyfreeforall.com’s pick to win the Calder Trophy. His primary competition figures to include Stenberg in San Jose, but no rookie in this class combines McKenna’s pre-NHL production, his uninterrupted NHL-equivalent trajectory, and his opportunity. His career NHL-equivalent AB is more than three times Stenberg’s, and he’ll be playing meaningful minutes on a team competing for a playoff spot. Toronto’s market will magnify every mistake, but it will also magnify every highlight, and McKenna has shown at every level he has played that he rises to the moment.

The Leafs Around Him

Toronto’s offseason was one of the most dramatic in the league. Treliving was fired on March 30th with the team sitting at 31-30-13, and Berube followed on May 13th. John Chayka was hired as General Manager on May 3rd, with franchise icon Mats Sundin joining as senior executive advisor, and Jim Hiller was named head coach on June 17th, with Daniel Alfredsson joining his staff as an assistant. Roughly half of the roster turned over.

The biggest additions came in net and on the blue line. Sergei Bobrovsky, a two-time Stanley Cup winner, signed a three-year, $21 million contract, a $7 million AAV that takes 6.7% of the cap, after Joseph Woll was traded to Philadelphia. Bobrovsky turns 38 this season and posted an .877 save percentage last year, the worst mark of his career, which makes him one of the most important variables on the roster. Darren Raddysh signed an eight-year deal at an $8.5 million AAV, 8.2% of the cap, after a breakout 70-point season in Tampa Bay, and Emil Andrae arrived from Philadelphia. Up front, the Leafs added Jack Roslovic, Nick Paul, Teddy Blueger, Colton Sissons, and Brandon Duhaime.

The graph above shows the Leafs’ projected roster by individual AB Score. Nylander (3.37) and Raddysh (3.35) lead the way, followed by John Tavares (2.73), Matthew Knies (2.49), and Matthews (2.39). Jack Roslovic (1.55), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1.36), and Morgan Rielly (1.18) round out the group above the 1.17 replacement level, for a total of eight players.

Raddysh’s impact cannot be overstated. His 3.35 AB Score ranks second on the entire roster, and he immediately becomes the top option on a power play that needs to replace Marner’s production. He has been paired with Rielly in camp, and Hiller appears determined to give Rielly a clean slate alongside him.

The concern is depth. Jake McCabe (0.94), Max Domi (0.88), Andrae (0.81), Steven Lorentz (0.79), and Dakota Joshua (0.78) sit just below the replacement level, while several of Chayka’s depth additions, including Paul (0.39), Blueger (0.28), Sissons (0.28), and Duhaime (0.25), sit well below it. Philippe Myers (negative 0.48) and Brendan Brisson (negative 0.05) finish at the bottom. This is exactly why McKenna matters so much. An above-replacement rookie in the top six gives Toronto a ninth impact player and meaningful scoring behind Matthews and Nylander.

The salary graph shows a roster that is balanced but not especially efficient. The core carries several of the league’s largest contracts. Matthews’ $13.25 million deal took 15.9% of the cap when he signed it, and AB projects him at $12.90 million, nearly exactly market value. Nylander’s $11.5 million contract took 13.8% of the cap at signing, and the model values him at $12.46 million.

The biggest surpluses come from Knies ($7.75 million against a $10.01 million projection), Andrae ($1.55 million against $2.75 million), Roslovic ($4.00 million against $5.13 million), and Raddysh ($8.50 million against $9.59 million). Across the roster, the Leafs generate roughly $10.6 million in surplus value. The overpayments are concentrated in Sissons ($4.25 million against $1.68 million), Rielly ($7.50 million against $5.03 million), Joshua ($3.25 million against $1.80 million), and Paul ($3.15 million against $2.05 million), totaling roughly $9.6 million. The net result is a roster producing about $1.1 million more in value than it costs.

That figure doesn’t include McKenna yet, and his entry-level contract may prove to be the most valuable deal on the team. At 1.03% of the cap, a player producing anywhere near his projection would generate millions in surplus value in each of the next three seasons. It also buys the Leafs time. McKenna’s entry-level deal runs through 2028-2029, when the cap is projected to reach $127.5 million.

Jim Hiller Behind the Bench

Jim Hiller ranks 21st in the AB Coaches study with a Coaching AB of 0.5507, well above the study average of 0.472, with Mike Babcock, under whom Hiller previously served as an assistant in Toronto, as his closest comparable. His sample is small, just three seasons as an NHL head coach with Los Angeles, which is reflected in a 60.9 confidence rating.

Even so, his profile is a strong fit for this roster. Hiller’s Advantage %, the percentage of players who improve under him relative to their previous coach, sits at 59.5%, well above the study average of 49.1% and even the Top 10 average of 56.7%. His Average Player AB of 1.345 matches the Top 10 average exactly, and his Average Range Score of 0.841 is more than double the study average of 0.392. His key players in Los Angeles included Adrian Kempe (3.597), Anze Kopitar (2.979) and Quinton Byfield (2.639).

His weakness is Return IMP %, the percentage of returning players who improve in consecutive seasons, where he sits at just 33.3% compared to a study average of 47.0%. For a team with half the roster new, however, Hiller’s ability to get more out of players arriving from other organizations is exactly what Toronto needs. Nylander has already praised his faster-paced system, a style that should suit a creative playmaker like McKenna.

Conclusion

Gavin McKenna enters the NHL with a resume that stacks up against any first overall pick of the last decade. He has improved every season of his career, dominated at every level, and grades out ahead of Ivar Stenberg on the NHL-equivalent scale by a wide margin. The projection model sets a conservative baseline of 44 points with a ceiling of 67, and his two closest comparables, Bedard and Celebrini, both produced 0.90 points per game as rookies.

With top-six opportunity, a coach whose players consistently improve after arriving from other organizations, and a supporting cast headlined by Matthews, Nylander, and Raddysh, the conditions are in place for McKenna to exceed that baseline and finish in the 55-to-65-point range. Based on the data, an above-replacement AB season and a strong case for the Calder Trophy are realistic expectations, and his contributions could go a long way toward helping the Leafs compete for the Eastern Conference’s second wild card spot. There will be growing pains along the way, as there are for nearly every rookie, but McKenna has the tools, the track record, and the opportunity to make an immediate impact.