The New Jersey Devils did not waste time in their General Manager search following the conclusion of the 2025-26 season, hiring New Jersey native and Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers Assistant GM Sunny Mehta to lead the organization. Since his introductory press conference eleven days ago, Mehta has made quite an impression on the Devils’ faithful, enamoring fans with his unique background as a professional poker player and his evident passion for the club. As someone who’s listened to many of Mehta’s interviews with various media members since his hiring, it’s clear that his mindset on analytics and research to gain a competitive edge resembles that of the work on this website. That said, the Devils, coming off a disappointing 42-37-3 (87-point) season, are entering an offseason where questions, especially under the new regime, will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. Mehta proclaimed that the weeks following his hiring would be a period of internal evaluation, one that’s already yielded the decision to part ways with Senior Vice President and Assistant General Manager Dan MacKinnon, and Senior Advisor to the President, Hockey Operations, and General Manager, Chuck Fletcher.

This article examines pressing issues for Sunny Metha, including an analysis of Head Coach Sheldon Keefe, an assessment of the roster Mehta inherits from a structural and contractual perspective, and a deep dive into the upcoming Nico Hischier contract negotiations viewed through hockeyfreeforall.com’s arbitration analyzer. This is the second part of a series in which the management structures of 2025-2026 non-playoff teams are examined (read Islanders article here: Mathieu Darche Has the Islanders Headed in the Right Direction — Why They Can Make the Playoffs Next Season – hockey free for all.com (HOME OF THE ADVANCED BRACTON)). An analysis of the upcoming free agent class will be published soon as well.

The Keefe Question

There’s no question the Devils underperformed this season, leading some to question whether or not Mehta should move off Head Coach Sheldon Keefe as a result. However, according to the AB Coaches study (more information on the new model here Joel Quenneville Has Altered the Trajectory of the Anaheim Ducks — The League Shouldn’t Make the Same Mistake with Peter DeBoer – hockey free for all.com (HOME OF THE ADVANCED BRACTON)), Keefe ranks 18^th out of 115 total coaches in the study from 2007-Present, and 7^th amongst all active head coaches in the NHL today. A coach in this range is not interchangeable, and a clear upgrade is likely lacking. The graphic below illustrates Keefe’s underlying coaching metrics relative to his 114 peers in the study, as well as the identified Top 10 coaches in the database.

The graphic illustrates that Sheldon Keefe, as Head Coach, although he is slightly below the top-10 study mark (0.72 to 0.78), is well above the study average of 0.466. The gap is important because the data indicate he is in the top quintile of coaches by the metrics.  

Additionally, his Return IMP% (how many players improve when playing under Keefe in consecutive years) and Advantage% (how many players improve under Keefe as opposed to their prior coach) both fall short of the Top 10 benchmark. However, Keefe’s Return IMP% is 21.88% higher than the average, and his Advantage% is 15.88% higher than the average. In addition, the league-replacement-level individual player AB Score for the 2025-2026 season was 1.17. The Average AB Score of a Sheldon Keefe player is 1.34, a rank above the Top-10 average of 1.30. The data suggests that although certain individuals thrive under Keefe, the team as a whole’s average improvement rating (how much an individual AB Score improves under Keefe each season) was only 1.07 compared to the Top-10 average of 1.33. Again, that mark remains well above the study average of -0.50, reinforcing the idea that Keefe is a high-quality NHL Head Coach, and Mehta can concentrate on the bottom-six forward and defensive pairings to make a meaningful impact if he chooses within the first few months of his tenure.

The only clear upgrade the model suggests is Bruce Cassidy, which would be an incredible hire if that’s the direction management decides to go. For more information on Bruce Cassidy and his metrics, read this article here John Tortorella Hired in Vegas, Why the Golden Knights Will Regret Firing Bruce Cassidy – hockey free for all.com (HOME OF THE ADVANCED BRACTON). To conclude, Cassidy is the only realistic upgrade; the model projects that Cassidy would have a greater impact on the 2026-27 Devils; otherwise, the data suggests letting Sheldon Keefe return to what should be a much-improved team with a full offseason of Sunny Mehta’s roster-management, provided the two of them align their managerial and operational philosophy.

The 2025-2026 Devils Roster

If the data suggests that Sheldon Keefe is a well-above-average NHL Head Coach operating as effectively as some of the league’s finest, then the attention can shift to supplementing the 2026-2027 lineup. Below is a graphic depicting the 2025-2026 New Jersey Devils Individual AB Score distribution, highlighting the value generation of all players with recorded statistics this season.

The graphic highlights a roster that is structurally uneven (like so many rosters in the NHL). There are obviously elite, world-class players at the top with Jack Hughes (3.55 AB), Jesper Bratt (3.06 AB), and Nico Hischier (2.94 AB). Outside those top 3, the Devils have seven players above the league-replacement threshold, including a number of young players, such as Arseny Gritsyuk and Dawson Mercer, who should be part of their core for the foreseeable future. In addition, prized free agent acquisition Dougie Hamilton and trade acquisition Timo Meier were both well-above replacement even in what many consider to be a “down year” for both players. However, despite those positives, the team has 14 players who performed substantially below league-replacement levels, including several players with some term remaining on their contracts, as listed below.

• Brett Pesce (31) 5.5 million AAV for 4 more seasons
• Jonas Siegenthaler (28) 3.4 million AAV for 2 more seasons
• Brenden Dillon (35) 4 million AAV for 1 more season
• Stefan Noesen (33) 2.75 million AAV for 1 more season
• Nick Bjugstad (33) 1.75 million AAV for 1 more season
• Maxim Tsyplakov (27) 2.25 million AAV for 1 more season

Outside of Pesce, the rest of the contracts listed above likely could be swapped either on the free agent market or the Devils’ prospect pool. The data suggests that at least one of those defensemen listed above should be traded to clear a spot for highly-touted defense prospect Seamus Casey, who likely could step in and produce an AB Score of above the league-replacement threshold immediately with a full-time role. Casey is the most likely of the Devils’ prospects to make an immediate impact in 2026-2027, barring an improbable draft lottery win on Tuesday. In fact, the database does have some AB information on Casey: he played 14 games in 2024-25, scoring 4 goals and 4 assists (8 points), for a 0.67 AB Score. Although that’d still be below league-replacement in 2026, it’s reasonable to infer that after a season of development in the AHL with the Utica Comets, Casey’s ready for a full-time role in 2026, saving cap space and giving a young player an opportunity in the process.

As for the other roster-management decisions, the Devils don’t need to completely overhaul their core; they just need to raise the floor by interchanging several of the replacement-level players mentioned above. Even marginal improvements within the 0.8-1 AB range can shift this roster into a completely different position, translating into points they needed to make the playoffs this season.

Goaltending will be another question for management as well, but the team’s defense and structure in front of a consistently career-above-average goalie in Jacob Markstrom may make an impact, too. After inspecting the roster construction of the Devils franchise, it’s clear they weren’t held back by top-end talent or subpar coaching, but the bottom-six forward group and the bottom-defense pairings need serious examination. This is where playoff opportunities live, and playoff victories manifest.

New Jersey Devils Salary Cap Analysis

While the AB distribution graph above illustrates which specific players are generating value on the ice, the salary distribution model outlined below displays cap management inefficiencies. The graph shows each 2025-2026 New Jersey Devils player’s current salary relative to their projected market value for 2026-2027.

Before breaking down the results, it’s important to understand how these projections were generated. The contract estimates were generated by a multifaceted model that blends machine-learning outputs with historical comparables and contract logic. More information can be found in this article here There’s Something Special Going On In Utah, Why The Mammoth Are Here To Stay – hockey free for all.com (HOME OF THE ADVANCED BRACTON), but essentially the model uses historical data to predict a player’s future cap percentage based on factors like AB Score, point production, age, and service time. The output is filtered by a comparables engine that identifies players with similar statistical profiles, contracts, and career strategies.

Again, the top of the roster’s structure is strong, with the Devils’ core players performing either at or above their current marks, which is exactly what an organization like this needs to be competitive sooner rather than later. Jack Hughes projects as a $10.17 million player that the Devils are getting at $8 flat for the next four seasons, the team is saving almost a million dollars on Jesper Bratt for the next five, and the Nico Hischier contract has been a bargain, saving over a million dollars on his deal as well. The surplus in these areas is critical, as it allows management to allocate those extra funds towards fixing depth holes in other areas of the roster. Even slight overpayments, the model suggests, on Dougie Hamilton (roughly 250k) and Timo Meier (roughly 500k) aren’t detrimental either.

However, as with the AB distribution, inefficiencies begin to appear when looking at the middle and bottom parts of the roster. A number of players who are producing at or below replacement level are occupying cap space that doesn’t translate to a positive on-ice impact. Even if the Arbitration Analyzer tool projects a “fair” contract, as no real Devils’ contracts stick out as albatross by any means, it’s still inefficient if that roster spot is preventing an upgrade or a youth transition (like the defensemen previously mentioned blocking Seamus Casey). Again, the Devils don’t need to rework their core; they need to reallocate their resources tied up in replacement-level production. This could mean giving opportunities to Casey or other prospects, as well as making smart trades or free-agent acquisitions with the money available to them (roughly $12 million, according to puckpedia.com).

Nico Hischier- A Poster Child for High Hockey Intelligence Reflected by the AB Score

This summer marks the beginning of a negotiation window with Captain Nico Hischier, as his 7-year deal expires next summer. Hischier is one of the best two-way players in the NHL, skilled as a penalty-killer, touted for his Hockey IQ, and known for his outstanding leadership. Below is Hischier’s career AB card, with the projected contract determined by the model from the listed comparables.

The data reinforce why a Nico Hischier contract extension is one of the most important decisions Sunny Mehta will make early on in his Devils tenure. From a production standpoint, Nico Hischier’s 66 points and 2.94 AB score in 2025-2026 put him in an elite category relative to his teammates and the league itself. He’s a top NHL center, and the Devils benefit from having two such players with him and Jack Hughes dominating the center of the ice (assuming he stays healthy). His 2.94 AB Score in 2025-2026 demonstrates consistency with the rest of his trajectory, as his reliability to finish with a score around 3.00 is a rare feat.

His consistency is what separates Hischier from many players in his statistical range. He played over 20 minutes a night for Sheldon Keefe in 2025-2026, killing penalties, and having a positive penalty drawn to taken ratio at 20:13. These are inputs that directly support his AB output and forecast his long-term sustainability, making a contract extension a key priority for Mehta to address this offseason. His comparables share a similar offensive profile and include players who have been consistently good AB producers, such as Brock Nelson and Dylan Larkin. None of these comparables are outliers, and his $8.62 million projected deal would be a solid raise from his current $7.25 million salary. That said, Hischier would probably command much more on the open market, as top-line centers rarely become available in their prime, not to mention the caliber of Hischier. It’s critical this deal gets done over the offseason, so as not to be a lingering distraction headed into training camp and the preseason. Hischier is the quintessential AB player and deserves another long-term contract with continued captaincy as a lifelong Devil.

The New Jersey Devils enter this offseason in a much stronger position than their 87-point finish suggests. The data point to a team that already has a solid foundation with fine-tuning the order of the day. They have a proven, well-above-average Head Coach with Sheldon Keefe, and cost-effective superstars in Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier. A solid case can be made to see the Devils return to the Eastern Conference playoffs next season with an overhauled depth chart. Marginal upgrades to the bottom of the roster with prospects or cheap free agent acquisitions will be the difference with this team, and it’ll be interesting to see more of Sunny Mehta’s decision-making background lead this organization into a new era.