Tentative AB Explanation

After countless hours of contemplating the next steps of hockeyfreeforall.com, we believe we have found the future of our research with a project called Tentative AB. Tentative AB allows us to expand our NHL database collection another seven seasons, bringing our total years covered to twenty-two. However, we are treating tentative AB as its own separate entity in our database family, as it will not be grouped together with the official AB numbers from 2007-present. The reason for this is because tentative AB is an estimated AB score based on the statistics available at the time. These numbers reached at the end of the tentative AB process would not be the same number we would get if we underwent the process to reach actual AB. However, we found that using the statistics used to calculate tentative AB with regular AB data, there was an 85% correlation between projected and actual. Therefore we believe tentative AB will allow us to examine more questions beyond our fifteen-year sample size. Tentative AB is the first step in essentially the reconstruction of our AB projects, as we intend to repeat similar processes conducted in the actual AB creation. This means we will be creating new spreadsheets based on the tentative AB sample set, such as a new tentative AB coaching database collection, tentative AB arbitration analyzers, and many more. However, one project we do not believe will be affected by the creation of tentative AB is the General Manager database, as a large quantity of the GMs evaluated in that study already contain data points from years prior to 2007. We believe if tentative AB were to be applied, it would complicate the results of that study and potentially invalidate it as a whole. When evaluating GMs, we wish to have all the facts and statistics used to calculate actual AB, which is why we are leaving that study as is. The Junior Hockey study published last year will also remain the same, as we do not wish to use tentative AB as a true measurement of a player’s first-year success. However, we are very excited to announce that the statistics used to calculate Tentative AB are available across all levels of professional hockey, unlike the statistics we use to calculate the actual AB since its inception in 2007. This accessibility allows us to create tentative AB databases for junior and overseas hockey leagues such as the OHL, QMJHL, WHL, KHL, SHL, NCAA, and more (At least 132 sheets). We plan on creating tentative AB spreadsheets for the last twenty-two seasons of each league provided stats are available. After accomplishing this daunting feat, we plan on examining all draft picks made over the last twenty-two NHL drafts, using tentative AB as a measurement to evaluate prospects, something we have been missing in our work for a number of years. A study coming on draft pick effectiveness and hit rate will be published shortly after. While it may not be as accurate or official as the actual AB numbers (which we plan to one day calculate for the same sample size in a professional setting), we believe tentative AB opens up a variety of projects for us to explore, and we are excited to share our work with you.


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