Earlier this morning, the National Hockey League released all thirty protection lists submitted by the expansion-eligible teams for the general public to see. In this article, we will examine the mock protection lists we came up with and determine the percentage of our picks in relation to the actual submitted lists. Similar to our pre-expansion draft protection list and analysis article, we will conduct a mock draft using the official lists, as well as provide projected depth charts and factor in any trades as we see fit. All teams met the expansion draft exposure requirements (even the New York Islanders who did so at the last second with the signing of Andy Greene), as each of the thirty teams exposed at least two forwards who are under contract during the 2021-22 season who have played either 40 games in the 2020-21 NHL season, or a combined 70+ games in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, as well as one defenseman under the same criteria. In addition to that, each team exposed one goaltender who is either under contract in 2021-22 or who is a restricted free agent currently. The first part of this article is providing the actual protection lists submitted by each team on Saturday, July 17th. If the player we originally predicted Seattle would take is still available post-protection list submission, and we still believe Seattle will take the player, we will have a much shorter explanation. However, if circumstances warrant us to change our selection, such as a player being exposed that we didn’t account for, our picks will differ from the previous article. After the lists are examined, we will provide a graph with the accuracy of our projected expansion draft protection lists compared to the actual. Again, huge shoutout to the people at CapFriendly.com, who have put together a mock expansion draft calculator for fans to make their projection, which has been extremely helpful in all our projects this summer. With all that being said, and a reminder that the Vegas Golden Knights are exempt from this process, let us now project how Seattle’s team may fare in the NHL’s Pacific Division next season.
Anaheim Ducks
Option: 7 skaters, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Nicholas Deslauriers
Forward 2- Max Jones
Forward 3- Isac Lundestrom
Forward 4- Rickard Rakell
Forward 5- Jakob Silfverberg
Forward 6- Sam Steel
Forward 7- Troy Terry
Defenseman 1- Cam Fowler
Defenseman 2- Hampus Lindholm
Defenseman 3- Josh Manson
Goaltender 1- John Gibson
Notable UFAs– Ryan Getzlaf, David Backes, Carter Rowney
Notable Exempt– Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, Maxime Comtois
Notable Exposed– Adam Henrique, Danton Heinen, Sonny Milano, Kevin Shattenkirk, Haydn Fleury, Jacob Larsson, Josh Mahura
Our Pick-Haydn Fleury (1.3m)
Our Pick Explanation: Anaheim’s protection list format of seven skaters, three defensemen, and one goaltender was one of the biggest surprises of the list releases to us. Danton Heinen, and Haydn Fleury are much more attractive options to us than Sam Steel, Isac Lundestrom, Nicholas Deslauriers, and the contract of Jakob Silverberg. While our pick in Carter Rowney is still available under this format, we believe he will be a UFA target for the Kraken once free agency officially begins on July 28th, and that they will opt to select one of Heinen or Fleury. Haydn Fleury is a former 7th overall pick in the 2014 NHL draft by the Carolina Hurricanes, and was traded to the Ducks at the 2021 trade deadline in exchange for Jani Hakanpaa. At twenty-five years of age, Fleury has four individual AB seasons to his name, in which he has a -1.92 career AB score. He has registered two individual positive and two individual negative AB seasons, as he is coming off a -7.11 individual score this season. In forty-seven games last season, Fleury scored three goals, and registered one assist for four points averaging 16:17 TOI. We believe, under the right coaching, and with an adequate defense partner, we believe Fleury’s high upside can be unlocked. In addition to this, we believe Fleury will be one of the most talented Canadian defensemen Dave Hakstol has ever coached, and we would be very excited to see the progress Fleury can make under Hakstol and his staff. Again, we didn’t think it was possible at all for Fleury to be exposed given the Ducks just traded for him, and despite the fact we think Heinen would be a great pick here as well, we believe Fleury’s potential is too much for the Kraken to pass up. It is also worth noting that Ron Francis was the GM in Carolina when Fleury was selected 7th overall, so it may make sense for a reunion.
Arizona Coyotes
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Phil Kessel
Forward 2- Clayton Keller
Forward 3- Nick Schmaltz
Forward 4- Conor Garland
Forward 5- Lawson Crouse
Forward 6- Christian Dvorak
Forward 7- Johan Larsson
Defenseman 1- Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Defenseman 2- Jakob Chychrun
Defenseman 3- Kyle Capobianco
Goaltender 1- Darcy Kuemper
Notable UFAs- Derick Brassard, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Antti Raanta, Michael Bunting
Notable Exempt– Barrett Hayton, Liam Kirk, Victor Soderstrom
Notable Exposed– Tyler Pitlick, Christian Fischer, Ilya Lyubushkin
Our Pick-Tyler Pitlick (1.75m)
Our Pick Explanation– Even with the exposure of Christian Fischer that was unexpected to us, we still believe that Pitlick is the pick here. There was some speculation that Seattle could select goaltender Adin Hill from Arizona, however the Coyotes dealt him to the San Jose Sharks for a 2nd round pick before yesterday’s roster freeze. As we wrote in our other article, Tyler Pitlick has been one of the more underrated players in the league AB wise, as he has a career AB score of +1.83 in a seven-year span. He has even registered a +7.17 score in 2019-20 with the Philadelphia Flyers, and a +4.08 score with the Dallas Stars. Dave Hakstol’s second best nationality position group according to our coach’s study was American born forwards, and Pitlick is from Minneapolis Minnesota. Pitlick has a year left at $1.75 million AAV before he becomes a UFA at age twenty-nine.
Boston Bruins
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Patrice Bergeron
Forward 2- Charlie Coyle
Forward 3- Jake DeBrusk
Forward 4- Trent Frederic
Forward 5- Brad Marchand
Forward 6- David Pastrnak
Forward 7- Craig Smith
Defenseman 1- Brandon Carlo
Defenseman 2- Matt Grzelcyk
Defenseman 3- Charlie McAvoy
Goaltender 1- Daniel Vladar
Notable UFAs- David Krejci, Taylor Hall, Sean Kuraly, Mike Reilly, Kevan Miller, Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak
Notable Exempt– Jack Studnicka, Jeremy Swayman
Notable Exposed– Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie, Chris Wagner, Curtis Lazar, Anton Blidh, Zach Senyshyn, John Moore, Jakub Zboril, Connor Clifton
Our Pick– Jakub Zboril (725k)
Our Pick Explanation: Boston is the first of our perfect protection lists, and therefore our selection won’t change. As we wrote in our last article, Jakub Zboril was Boston’s first of three 1st round picks in the loaded 2015 NHL draft (13th overall) and had a solid rookie season with the Bruins this year. The twenty-four year old registered nine assists for nine points in forty-two games played this season with the team and had a solid -0.68 rookie AB score. We think he is capable of building off that successful rookie year and has a chance to be a very good bottom pair defenseman for the Kraken next season on a cheap contract as well. Defensemen born outside of the US, Canada, Sweden, Finland, and Russia, or “Other” as we referred to it as in our coach’s study, happened to be Dave Hakstol’s 2nd best defensive group with an average AB score of -0.95, slightly worse than Zboril’s -0.68 score from this season. He played a solid number of minutes for Bruce Cassidy’s Bruins this season at 17:03 average TOI, and we think he is ready to do that and potentially more with the Kraken, if Hakstol believes in him enough. This could be Seattle’s version of Brayden McNabb, talented prospect who just needed a change of scenery and the right coaching. McNabb was even two years older than Zboril is now at the time of his expansion draft. McNabb’s first year AB with Vegas was +9.98 and he’s only registered one negative season with the team at -0.47 in 2019-20. Granted he had a +1.14 career AB score at the time of his expansion draft, his score the year of the draft was -1.56, which turned around due to proper coaching. Zboril could potentially have the same impact at a cheaper cost and a younger age. However, if Trent Frederic or Jake DeBrusk are exposed by the Bruins, Seattle must take them into consideration as well. Seattle is going to get a very good player from Boston, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a shot at Ondrej Kase, as he is another high-AB forward who is twenty-five years old and an RFA.
Buffalo Sabres
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Jack Eichel
Forward 2- Rasmus Asplund
Forward 3- Sam Reinhart
Forward 4- Victor Olofsson
Forward 5- Anders Bjork
Forward 6- Casey Mittlestadt
Forward 7- Tage Thompson
Defenseman 1- Rasmus Dahlin
Defenseman 2- Rasmus Ristolainen
Defenseman 3- Henri Jokiharju
Goaltender 1- Linus Ullmark (UFA)
Notable UFAs- Jake McCabe, Matt Irwin, Carter Hutton, Riley Sheahan, Drake Caggiula
Notable Exempt– Arttu Ruotsalainen, Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, John-Jason Peterka, Jacob Bryson, Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen
Notable Exposed– Jeff Skinner, Colin Miller, Zemgus Girgensons, Cody Eakin, Kyle Okposo, William Borgen
Our Pick- William Borgen (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– If we knew Skinner was going to waive his NMC, we would’ve protected Rasmus Asplund as he was our selection from Buffalo in our last article. Buffalo does not have very many appealing options exposed for Seattle to work with here. Barring any side deals with the Kraken to take a bad contract such as Kyle Okposo or Jeff Skinner in exchange for picks or prospects, we believe the choice is down to William Borgen or Zemgus Girgensons. We believe Seattle selects Borgen strictly because Girgensons’ $2.2 million cap hit would be high for them in addition to the rest of the picks we’ve made in this article. As a twenty-four year old defenseman on one of the worst AB hockey teams in the history of the metric, Will Borgen played in ten games for the Sabres, in which he did not score a point, registering a -6.20 AB score. We think, on a substantially better team, that there is upside in Borgen, and that Seattle should take a chance.
Calgary Flames
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Johnny Gaudreau
Forward 2- Sean Monahan
Forward 3- Matthew Tkachuk
Forward 4- Andrew Mangiapane
Forward 5- Elias Lindholm
Forward 6- Dillon Dube
Forward 7- Mikael Backlund
Defenseman 1- Chris Tanev
Defenseman 2- Noah Hanifin
Defenseman 3- Rasmus Andersson
Goaltender 1- Jacob Markstrom (NMC)
NMC Waived- Milan Lucic
Notable UFAs- Derek Ryan, Josh Leivo, Zac Rinaldo, Michael Stone, Nikita Nesterov
Notable Exempt– Connor Zary, Jakob Pelletier, Juuso Valimaki, Dustin Wolf
Notable Exposed– Milan Lucic, Mark Giordano, Dominik Simon, Oliver Kylington, Tyler Parsons
Our Pick– Mark Giordano (6.75m)
Our Pick Explanation– We didn’t see the Calgary Flames not protecting their captain and 2019 Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano coming. It’s a shame Calgary could potentially lose a player of Giordano’s caliber for nothing, and Seattle should absolutely take advantage of this situation. We’ve projected that Seattle will take a solid amount of younger defensemen, and having a former captain with leadership qualities like Giordano has would be very beneficial to them. Giordano even had a quality 2020-21 season, as he scored nine goals and registered seventeen assists for twenty-six points in a full fifty-six game season for the Flames. On top of this, he was playing 22:57 per game, his +2.09 AB score was the 2nd highest of any Flames defenseman (behind only Chris Tanev’s +6.81), and he had the 7th highest AB score of anyone on the team. Yes, Mark Giordano is thirty-seven years old, however, he is on the final year of his $6.75 million AAV contract and could easily be flipped at the trade deadline to a contender with salary retention if Seattle doesn’t do as well as we think they will. This should be an easy pick for Seattle, and we expect him to be one of the players at the Kraken’s announcement event on Wednesday night.
Carolina Hurricanes
Option: 7 forwards, 3 skaters, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Jordan Staal (NMC)
Forward 2- Sebastian Aho
Forward 3- Teuvo Teravainen
Forward 4- Warren Foegele
Forward 5- Andrei Svechnikov
Forward 6- Vincent Trocheck
Forward 7- Jesper Fast
Defenseman 1- Brett Pesce
Defenseman 2- Jaccob Slavin
Defenseman 3- Brady Skjei
Goaltender 1- Alex Nedeljkovic
Notable UFAs- Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook, Cedric Paquette, Dougie Hamilton, Jani Hakanpaa, James Reimer, Peter Mrazek
Notable Exempt– Martin Necas, Seth Jarvis, Ryan Suzuki, Dominik Bokk
Notable Exposed– Nino Niederreiter, Warren Foegele, Jake Bean, Jake Gardiner,
Our Pick– Jake Bean (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Carolina’s protection list is one of the more interesting ones to us. Exposing Nino Niederreiter could come back to bite them, as we would definitely have interest if we were Kraken management. However, the real stunner was the protection of Brady Skjei over former first round pick Jake Bean. Bean is an obvious pick in our opinion, as Ron Francis was the general manager in Carolina at the time of his selection as well. A potential Jake Bean/Haydn Fleury defense pairing could happen in Seattle, as two Francis picks could be re-united. Jake Bean only has one season of AB data at this point in his career, as he registered a -1.52 score in the 2020-21 season. In this season, he scored one goal and had eleven assists for twelve points in forty-two games played at 14:32 TOI.
Chicago Blackhawks
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Jonathan Toews (NMC)
Forward 2- Patrick Kane (NMC)
Forward 3- Alex DeBrincat
Forward 4- Dylan Strome
Forward 5- Henrik Borgstrom
Forward 6- Brandon Hagel
Forward 7- David Kampf
Defenseman 1- Caleb Jones
Defenseman 2- Connor Murphy
Defenseman 3- Riley Stillman
Goaltender 1- Kevin Lankinen
Notable UFAs- Zack Smith, Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri,
Notable Exempt– Dominik Kubalik, Kirby Dach, Philipp Kurashev, Lukas Reichel, Adam Boqvist, Pius Suter
Notable Exposed– Calvin De Hann, Malcom Subban, Brett Connolly, Nikita Zadorov, Adam Gaudette, Ryan Carpenter
Our Pick- Malcom Subban (850k)
Our Pick Explanation- This was the protection list we compiled after the Duncan Keith trade in that article. Protecting Riley Stillman over Nikita Zadorov was definitely the right decision in our eyes, as Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman continues his terrific start to the 2021-22 offseason. None of these options intrigue us from a Kraken management standpoint, so we would select Malcom Subban here. A former 2012 1st round selection by the Boston Bruins, Subban had a 6-8-1 record with the Blackhawks this year, in which he had a 3.2 GAA and 0.900 save percentage. With better defense in front of him, he could compete for the backup goaltender job in Seattle. Worst case scenario he’s a solid AHL goaltender that could step in if any injuries were to occur.
Colorado Avalanche
Option: 7 forwards, 3 skaters, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Nathan MacKinnon
Forward 2- Mikko Rantanen
Forward 3- Andre Burakovsky
Forward 4- Nazem Kadri
Forward 5- Logan O’Connor
Forward 6- Valeri Nichushkin
Forward 7- Tyson Jost
Defenseman 1- Cale Makar
Defenseman 2- Devon Toews
Defenseman 3- Samuel Girard
Goaltender 1- Philip Grubauer (UFA)
NMC Waived- Erik Johnson
Notable UFAs- Gabriel Landeskog,Brandon Saad, Matt Calvert, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Patrik Nemeth, Devan Dubnyk
Notable Exempt– Shane Bowers, Alex Newhook, Pavel Francouz, Bowen Byram
Notable Exposed– Erik Johnson, J.T. Compher, Joonas Donskoi, Jacob MacDonald
Our Pick- J.T. Compher (3.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– This was the protection list we compiled after the Ryan Graves trade in that article. Since we started hearing about how far off contract extension talks were between the Avalanche and captain Gabriel Landeskog, we knew they probably were not going to protect him. This means the Kraken can exclusively negotiate with Landeskog and his representatives prior to the expansion draft and can select him from the Avalanche if they reach an agreement. Due to the low number of quality centers we see being exposed in this draft, we believe the Kraken will opt to select J.T. Compher over talented young defenseman Jacob MacDonald, as he could potentially slot into their 2C-3C role. Compher’s +5.10 individual AB score this season was 11th on an AB loaded Colorado Avalanche team, that finished with a combined team AB score of +104.53. Compher played in forty-eight games this season, in which he scored ten goals with eight assists for eighteen points, while playing 14:13 per game.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward 1- Cam Atkinson
Forward 2- Gustav Nyquist
Forward 3- Patrik Laine
Forward 4- Boone Jenner
Forward 5- Oliver Bjorkstrand
Forward 6- Jack Roslovic
Forward 7- Eric Robinson
Defenseman 1- Seth Jones
Defenseman 2- Zach Werenski
Defenseman 3- Vladislav Gavrikov
Goaltender 1- Joonas Korpisalo
Notable UFAs- Zac Dalpe, Stefan Matteau, Michael Del Zotto
Notable Exempt– Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier, Liam Foudy, Elvis Merzlikins
Notable Exposed– Max Domi, Kevin Stenlund, Dean Kukan, Nathan Gerbe
Our Pick– Kevin Stenlund (874k)
Our Pick Explanation-Protecting Eric Robinson over Kevin Stenlund to us was exactly the right decision by GM Jarmo Kekäläinen and his staff. Leaving Max Domi’s contract ($5.2 million AAV for only one more season) exposed could be tempting for Seattle. However, we believe Stenlund is a better, cheaper option allowing Seattle to take some bigger named players later on in the draft. Stenlund played in thirty-two games for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, in which he scored five goals and registered five assists for ten points in just under thirteen minutes of ice time. To put this into perspective, he played in twenty-two fewer games than Max Domi, had four less goals, and played almost two fewer minutes per game, all while making about $4.5 million less. Stenlund’s -1.36 individual AB score in 2020-21 was the 8th best of any player on the Blue Jackets this season, and he has a +0.44 career AB score in two years of data.
Dallas Stars
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Tyler Seguin (NMC)
Forward 2- Jamie Benn (NMC)
Forward 3- Alexander Radulov (NMC)
Forward 4- Joe Pavelski
Forward 5- Radek Faksa
Forward 6- Roope Hintz
Forward 7- Denis Gurianov
Defenseman 1- Miro Heiskanen
Defenseman 2- John Klingberg
Defenseman 3- Esa Lindell
Goaltender 1- Anton Khudobin
Notable UFAs- Jamie Oleksiak, Sami Vatanen, Mark Pysyk, Andrew Cogliano, Justin Dowling
Notable Exempt– Joel Kiviranta, Ty Dellandrea, Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley, Jake Oettinger
Notable Exposed– Andrej Sekera, Blake Comeau, Tanner Kero, Nicholas Cammano, Ben Bishop
Our Pick– Tanner Kero (762k)
Our Pick Explanation– Our original pick of Jason Dickinson was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a third round selection in the 2021 NHL draft prior to the roster freeze. With Ben Bishop waiving his NMC, it was logical to put Khudobin in his slot. However, Bishop waived after our article was published and we can not count our list as perfect for that reason. Tanner Kero should be the pick here in our eyes, as he is significantly the best AB player available. Kero played thirty-nine games this season in which he scored three goals and registered seven assists for ten points in just over ten minutes of ice time per game. He had a +0.64 AB score this season (10th of any Stars player) and has an impressive +3.95 career AB score for a player who doesn’t get the most ice time. This could be a hidden gem for Seattle in this expansion draft, and perhaps new potential could be unlocked in Kero with a bigger role. He is twenty-eight years old.
Detroit Red Wings
Option- 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Dylan Larkin
Forward 2- Jakub Vrana
Forward 3- Tyler Bertuzzi
Forward 4- Robby Fabbri
Forward 5- Michael Rasmussen
Forward 6- Adam Erne
Forward 7- Givani Smith
Defenseman 1- Filip Hronek
Defenseman 2- Nick Leddy
Defenseman 3- Gustav Lindstrom
Goaltender 1- Thomas Greiss
Notable UFAs- Darren Helm, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Bobby Ryan, Sam Gagner, Marc Staal, Jonathan Bernier
Notable Exempt– Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Jonathan Berggren
Notable Exposed– Frans Nielsen, Vladislav Namestnikov, Danny DeKeyser, Christian Djoos, Troy Stecher, Denis Cholowski
Our Pick– Troy Stecher (1.7m)
Our Pick Explanation– We were unable to publish a Nick Leddy trade article, but we would have obviously protected him over one of Stecher and Cholowski. We did not expect Lindstrom to be protected over one of those two however, as this gives the Kraken some serious options. While we still like the idea of the Kraken selecting Christian Djoos as we wrote about in our last article, we believe the availability of Troy Stecher changes things. During the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, Stecher found his way in the Canucks organization and registered back-to-back +5 or higher individual AB seasons. However, this season with the Red Wings, he registered a -8.19 individual score. Granted, the Red Wings finished near the bottom of the league and everyone’s individual scores were bad. Despite this score, Stecher has a decent =1.81 career AB score in the five years of data we have on him. We think that Stecher could become the player he was in Vancouver again given the opportunity to play on a good team, which is why Seattle should take the risk at a $1.7 million cap hit.
Edmonton Oilers
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Connor McDavid
Forward 2- Leon Draisaitl
Forward 3- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Forward 4- Jesse Puljujarvi
Forward 5- Kailer Yamamoto
Forward 6- Zack Kassian
Forward 7- Josh Archibald
Defenseman 1- Duncan Keith (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Darnell Nurse
Defenseman 3- Ethan Bear
Goaltender 1- Stuart Skinner
Notable UFAs- Mike Smith, Adam Larsson, Dmitry Kulikov, Tyson Barrie, Alex Chiasson, Tyler Ennis
Notable Exempt– Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway
Notable Exposed– Kris Russell, Dominik Kahun, Kyle Turris, James Neal, Oskar Klefbom, Mikko Koskinen
Our Pick– Tyler Benson (808k)
Our Pick Explanation– This was the protection list we compiled after the Duncan Keith trade in that article. Caleb Jones was our original selection in our last expansion article, however, we believe the Kraken will go off the board with their selection from Edmonton, as the top guys have cap hits too large to select. Tyler Benson is a twenty-three year old, former 2nd round pick of the Oilers who has spent the majority of his professional career at this point with the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL. Benson has been nearly a point per game player in the AHL, as he has scored thirty-four goals, with one-hundred-forty-one assists in one-hundred-fifty-six games with the Condors. We don’t have any AB data on Benson, as he has yet to play enough games in the NHL, but we believe this would be a very interesting, and cheap acquisition by the Seattle Kraken here.
Florida Panthers
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Jonathan Huberdeau (NMC)
Forward 2- Aleksander Barkov
Forward 3- Sam Bennett
Forward 4- Patrick Hornqvist
Forward 5- Carter Verhaeghe
Forward 6- Anthony Duclair
Forward 7- Mason Marchment
Defenseman 1- Aaron Ekblad
Defenseman 2- MacKenzie Weegar
Defenseman 3- Gustav Forsling
Goaltender 1- Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC)
NMC Waived- Keith Yandle
Notable UFAs- Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Montour, Chris Driedger
Notable Exempt– Owen Tippett, Spencer Knight
Notable Exposed– Radko Gudas, Anton Stralman, Keith Yandle, Markus Nutivaara, Ryan Lomberg, Noel Acciari
Our Pick– Radko Gudas (2.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– As we wrote in our last expansion article, Florida had an outstanding year, and a large part of it is due to their terrific defense group. Radko Gudas had a solid year, scoring two goals and registering nine assists for eleven points. He finished with a +2.62 AB score, which was 3rd best of the Panthers’ defense group behind only MacKenzie Weegar’s +13.18, and Gustav Forsling’s +8.5. Gudas’ grit and toughness is something that the new expansion team will definitely be needing, and this pick is definitely one we will be paying attention to on Wednesday night.
Los Angeles Kings
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Anze Kopitar
Forward 2- Viktor Arvidsson
Forward 3- Alex Iafallo
Forward 4- Adrian Kempe
Forward 5- Dustin Brown
Forward 6- Trevor Moore
Forward 7- Lias Andersson
Defenseman 1- Drew Doughty (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Matt Roy
Defenseman 3- Sean Walker
Goaltender 1- Cal Petersen
Notable UFAs- Martin Frk
Notable Exempt– Alex Turcotte, Quinton Byfield, Gabriel Vilardi, Arthur Kaliyev, Jaret Anderson-Dolan,
Notable Exposed– Olli Maatta, Kale Clague, Trevor Moore, Brenden Lemieux, Carl Grundstrom, Blake Lizotte
Our Pick– Olli Maata (3.33m)
Our Pick Explanation– As we discussed in our last expansion article, Los Angeles is rumored to be in the Jack Eichel sweepstakes and clearing out Olli Maatta’s 3.33 million could help LA in taking on Eichel’s full salary should a deal be made. We picked Maatta for Seattle as he has always been a very positive AB defenseman. In his eight NHL seasons, he has registered positive scores five times, but hasn’t registered a positive score since 2018-19 in Pittsburgh. Similar to some of the other players we have selected, we believe that Maatta has been negatively impacted by playing on below average teams, and we don’t project Seattle to be that. Maatta could play in Seattle’s Top-4, and perhaps be one of their better all-around defensemen from year one. Plus, he only has one year remaining on his contract, and could be flipped at the trade deadline if Seattle chooses. All this being said, we could definitely see Seattle opting to go with a talented forward in this scenario such as Lizotte, Lemieux, or Grundstrom, or even a younger defenseman like Kale Clague. Definitely something to monitor.
Minnesota Wild
Forward 1- Mats Zuccarello (NMC)
Forward 2- Joel Eriksson Ek
Forward 3- Kevin Fiala
Forward 4- Ryan Hartman
Forward 5- Nico Sturm
Forward 6- Marcus Foligno
Forward 7- Jordan Greenway
Defenseman 1- Matt Dumba
Defenseman 2- Jonas Brodin
Defenseman 3- Jared Spurgeon
Goaltender 1- Cam Talbot
Notable UFAs- Marcus Johansson, Nick Bonino, Ian Cole
Notable Exempt– Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi, Matthew Boldy, Calen Addison
Notable Exposed– Carson Soucy, Nick Bjugstad, Viktor Rask, Kaapo Kahkonen
Our Pick– Carson Soucy (2.75m)
Our Pick Explanation– This was the protection list we compiled after the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts in that article. The Wild are our second, and last perfect protection list, and our pick remains the same as our last expansion article. If no trades are made, we believe Carson Soucy is the obvious choice for Seattle, as they immediately get a Top-4 defenseman. We chose Soucy for that reason, as in his two NHL seasons of data we have on him, Soucy’s career AB score is an impressive +7.62. He registered a +8.27 in 2019-20, and a +6.96 in his first year under coach Dean Evason. Soucy is by far the best player Minnesota has to offer Seattle here, and Kraken management should be thrilled to get a player of his caliber at such a cheap cap hit.
Montreal Canadiens
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Forward 2- Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Forward 3- Artturi Lehkonen
Forward 4- Tyler Toffoli
Forward 5- Josh Anderson
Forward 6- Joel Armia
Forward 7- Jake Evans
Defenseman 1- Ben Chiarot
Defenseman 2- Jeff Petry
Defenseman 3-Joel Edmundson
Goaltender 1- Jake Allen
Notable UFAs- Tomas Tatar, Eric Staal, Jordan Weal, Corey Perry, Michael Frolik, Erik Gustafsson, Jon Merrill
Notable Exempt– Ryan Poehling, Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Alexander Romanov, Jesse Ylonen
Notable Exposed– Carey Price, Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber, Paul Byron, Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, Cale Fleury, Jonathan Drouin
Our Pick– Carey Price (10.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– When we discovered that Carey Price was left exposed so that the Montreal Canadiens could protect Carey Price, we were complete and utterly stunned. The goaltender that dragged this team to the Stanley Cup Finals is left for the expansion Kraken to immediately swoop up and reap the benefits. In our eyes, Price showed the entire league he is still a Top-5 goaltender alive today, even at thirty-three years old. We believe, that if the Kraken select Price, a playoff berth is virtually guaranteed, as the Pacific Division is arguably the weakest in the league. Superior goaltending out of Marc-Andre Fleury, who at the time everyone thought was finished, is what helped the expansion Vegas Golden Knights reach the Stanley Cup Finals in their first year of existence. Carey Price can do the same thing for the Seattle Kraken, as he just showed he could this season. He is from the area and would instantly be the team’s most marketable player upon arrival. What’s special about Carey Price is that we notice certain defensemen have registered absurdly higher AB numbers playing for teams with him on it then without him. A perfect example of this Joel Edmundson this season. Edmundson’s career high individual AB score was a +1.68 with the St. Louis Blues in 2016-17, and his career AB score was -1.36 before joining the Montreal Canadiens this season. In his first season with the team, he registered a whopping +11.03 individual score, turning his career average to a +0.71. Imagine if Price could have even a fraction of the impact, he clearly had on Edmundson on the players Seattle selects in this draft. Despite the $10.5 cap hit until 2026-27, we believe Price is entirely worth is, as Seattle would immediately leap to the top of the Pacific Division standings with the Vegas Golden Knights if this decision were made. We could easily see Carey Price in Seattle on Wednesday night wearing a Kraken jersey at the team launch event, as we fully expect him to be.
Nashville Predators
Option: 8 skaters, 1 goaltender
Skater 1- Filip Forsberg
Skater 2- Luke Kunin
Skater 3- Tanner Jeannot
Skater 4- Philippe Myers
Skater 5- Roman Josi (NMC)
Skater 6- Dante Fabbro
Skater 7- Mattias Ekholm
Skater 8- Alexandre Carrier
Goaltender 1- Juuse Saros
Notable UFAs- Mikael Granlund, Erik Haula, Brad Richardson, Erik Gudbranson
Notable Exempt– Eeli Tolvanen, Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass
Notable Exposed– Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Rocco Grimaldi, Nick Cousins, Colton Sissons
Our Pick– Ryan Johansen (8m)
Our Pick Explanation– We had floated the idea of the Predators protecting five defenseman for a while now, and although we didn’t officially predict this in our last expansion article, we are not surprised by GM David Poile’s decision here. Although we expected Ryan Ellis to be with the Predators during this process, his trade freed up a significant amount of cap space for Predators management, an amount that could get bigger after this expansion draft selection. This is where we still believe our first significant trade will occur, as we think this is David Poile’s opportunity to move one of Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene’s 8 million dollar cap hit to create much needed space. To do this, we believe Nashville will need to give up their 2021 1st round pick (18th overall) as well as a talented prospect such as Philip Tomasino, or even recently acquired Cody Glass for the Kraken to accept. We believe the Kraken would have more interest in Ryan Johansen then Matt Duchene due to the fact that Johansen is younger than Duchene with less term remaining on his deal. Johansen scored seven goals and registered fifteen assists for twenty-two points on a Predators team that barely snuck into the playoffs this season only to be eliminated by the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. Johansen would enter the Kraken organization as one of the faces of the franchise and would almost certainly be their best Center on day one. Along with Johansen, the assets acquired with him could be significant pieces for the expansion team moving forward, making us believe it would be worth GM Ron Francis’ time to consider this option.
New Jersey Devils
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defenseman, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Nico Hischier
Forward 2- Yegor Sharangovich
Forward 3- Miles Wood
Forward 4- Jesper Bratt
Forward 5- Pavel Zacha
Forward 6- Michael McLeod
Forward 7- Janne Kuokkanen
Defenseman 1- Ryan Graves
Defenseman 2- Damon Severson
Defenseman 3- Jonas Siegenthaler
Goaltender 1- Mackenzie Blackwood
Notable UFAs- Ryan Murray, Connor Carrick, Aaron Dell
Notable Exempt– Jack Hughes, Jesper Boqvist, Dawson Mercer, Alexander Holtz, Nolan Foote, Ty Smith, Kevin Bahl
Notable Exposed– P.K. Subban, Nick Merkley, Andreas Johnsson, Nathan Bastian, Will Butcher
Our Pick– Andreas Johnsson (3.4m)
Our Pick Explanation– This was the protection list we compiled after the Ryan Graves trade in that article. With the addition of Graves, the need to protect P.K. Subban for Devils management disappeared. While we believe Subban could be an intriguing option for Kraken management, as he would be a very good player from a marketability and advertising standpoint, the nine million dollar cap hit is just too much to take on, even for just one season. As we wrote in our last expansion article, we believe Andreas Johnsson should be the pick for Seattle, as he had the 2nd best AB score on the Devils this season with a +0.2, behind only Jesper Bratt’s +2.45. Career wise, Johnsson has registered positive AB scores in each of his three NHL seasons, including an impressive +5.87 score in his rookie season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. This could be another scenario where the Kraken can earn a draft pick or a prospect in exchange for taking on Johnsson’s remaining salary, as the Devils are rumored to have interest in all of the top available defenseman this offseason such as Seth Jones and Dougie Hamilton. Freeing up $3.25 million in cap space, especially after Johnsson’s disappointing season production wise makes sense for GM Tom Fitzgerald and his group and gifting the Kraken a third round pick to make it happen shouldn’t be something they rule out.
New York Islanders
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Matthew Barzal
Forward 2- Anders Lee
Forward 3- Brock Nelson
Forward 4- Cal Clutterbuck
Forward 5- Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Forward 6- Matt Martin
Forward 7- Anthony Beauvillier
Defenseman 1- Ryan Pulock
Defenseman 2- Adam Pelech
Defenseman 3- Scott Mayfield
Goaltender 1- Semyon Varlamov
Notable UFAs- Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Casey Cizikas, Josh Ho-Sang
Notable Exempt– Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson, Ilya Sorokin
Notable Exposed– Josh Bailey, Jordan Eberle, Kieffer Bellows, Leo Komarov
Our Pick– Kieffer Bellows (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Despite the surprise protections of Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck, Kieffer Bellows is still our pick over Josh Bailey and Jordan Eberle. As we wrote in our last expansion article, Bellows is one of the few significant players that aren’t eligible for the NHL’s two seasons of professional experience exposure rule despite him only playing this season in the NHL. Bellows played enough games in the AHL since he was drafted to allow him to be exposed, and quite likely, Seattle’s pick. On a New York Islanders team that was one win away from the Stanley Cup Finals this season, Bellows registered a +2.37 AB score which was the 10th best on the Islanders roster. The former 1st round pick played in fourteen games this season scoring three goals for his only three points. If given the opportunity, we believe Bellows could provide some depth scoring for the Kraken next season, as he recently had thirty-one points in fifty-five games, including twenty-two goals for Bridgeport of the AHL in 2019-20. We don’t see a possibility where the Islanders do not protect the seven forwards we listed, leaving Bellows to be the odd man out. At only twenty-three years old, we believe there is still great potential for him to be an NHL regular, and that this is a no-brainer for the Kraken management group to take a gamble on him.
New York Rangers
Forward 1- Artemi Panarin (NMC)
Forward 2- Mika Zibanejad (NMC)
Forward 3- Chris Kreider (NMC)
Forward 4- Pavel Buchnevich
Forward 5- Filip Chytil
Forward 6- Ryan Strome
Forward 7- Kevin Rooney
Defenseman 1- Jacob Trouba (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Ryan Lindgren
Defenseman 3- Libor Hajek
Goaltender 1- Alexandar Georgiev
Notable UFAs- Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson,
Notable Exempt– Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, Vitaly Kravtsov, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Nils Lundkvist, Braden Schneider, Igor Shesterkin
Notable Exposed– Julien Gauthier, Colin Blackwell, Anthony DeAngelo
Our Pick– Colin Blackwell (725k)
Our Pick Explanation– We are somewhat surprised by the Rangers decision to protect Kevin Rooney over Colin Blackwell, as we believe he had a solid first-year with the team. In forty-seven games with the Rangers, Blackwell scored twelve goals, and registered ten assists for twenty-two points, and a solid +1.83 individual AB score. This score was the 9th highest of any Rangers player, and 6th of any Rangers forward. He had an outstanding +5.24 individual score with the Nashville Predators during the 2019-20 season, and his career AB score of +3.53 is extremely impressive given he plays less than fifteen minutes per game. This could be a very good addition to Seattle’s forward group, and we definitely expect them to examine this option closely.
Ottawa Senators
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen,1 goaltender
Forward 1- Austin Watson
Forward 2- Colin White
Forward 3- Connor Brown
Forward 4- Brady Tkachuk
Forward 5- Drake Batherson
Forward 6- Logan Brown
Forward 7- Nicholas Paul
Defenseman 1- Thomas Chabot
Defenseman 2- Nikita Zaitsev
Defenseman 3- Victor Mete
Goaltender 1- Filip Gustavsson
Notable UFAs- Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov, Ryan Dzingel,
Notable Exempt– Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Shane Pinto, Alex Formenton, Erik Brannstrom, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Artem Zub, Ridly Greig
Notable Exposed– Evgenii Dadonov, Matt Murray, Chris Tierney, Josh Brown, Vitaly Abramov, Joey Daccord
Our Pick– Joey Daccord (750k)
Our Pick Explanation– As we wrote in our last expansion article, Ottawa is another team leaving Seattle very few quality options to take advantage of in this draft. Dadonov could easily be the selection if Seattle is willing to take on his cap hit. However, we couldn’t squeeze him into our new projected team. This is where Seattle’s third of four goaltenders come in. The Senators have a top-10 pick in the 2021 NHL draft, and with two very talented goaltending prospects available there, makes this loss a bit less significant. Perhaps they try and tempt Seattle to take Matt Murray contract off their hands for a pick or prospect, but we find this very unlikely due to the high availability of goaltenders in this expansion draft. However, Daccord would be a solid third or fourth string option for the Kraken, as he is still twenty-four years old, with a few games of NHL experience under his belt.
Philadelphia Flyers
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Claude Giroux (NMC)
Forward 2- Kevin Hayes (NMC)
Forward 3- Oskar Lindblom
Forward 4- Travis Konecny
Forward 5- Sean Couturier
Forward 6- Scott Laughton
Forward 7- Nicholas Aube-Kubel
Defenseman 1- Ivan Provorov
Defenseman 2- Ryan Ellis
Defenseman 3- Travis Sanheim
Goaltender 1- Carter Hart
Notable UFAs- Brian Elliot, Samuel Morin
Notable Exempt– Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, Cam York,
Notable Exposed– Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, Shayne Gostisbehere, Justin Braun, Robert Hagg,
Our Pick– Jakub Voracek (8.25m)
Our Pick Explanation– We did not get a protection list submitted after the Ryan Ellis trade from yesterday. However, we would’ve obviously protected Ellis, and replaced Aube-Kubel for Nolan Patrick. The JVR exposure was something we didn’t expect, however, we believe Voracek is still the pick here. As we wrote in our last article, this is the second of three major trades we project to see come expansion draft night, as the Flyers have stated they plan on leaving Jakub Voracek exposed in an attempt to clear salary and give him a change of scenery. Like the New Jersey Devils, the Flyers are also one of the teams interested in bolstering their defense group this offseason, Seth Jones in particular, and are going to need all the money they can get if they plan on extending Jones immediately upon the trade. Philadelphia has the 13th overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft, and we would see that most likely going to the Kraken in this deal, along with either Morgan Frost, Cam York, Joel Farabee, or other draft picks in order to take all of Voracek’s remaining salary. Voracek has usually been a positive AB player throughout his career, as he has a +0.27 career AB score in thirteen years of data. However, his last four seasons have been on a weird pattern of highly positive, then very negative, back to positive, then back to negative (+4.77, -8.18, +7.56, -4.01). He had a solid point production season this year, as he scored nine goals, and registered thirty-four assists in fifty-three games for the Flyers, as well as the -4.01 individual season AB score we already mentioned. Voracek would instantly become Seattle’s most dynamic winger and could be a potential linemate of Ryan Johansen’s on the Kraken’s first line. It would certainly be fun to watch, and Voracek’s contract expires at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season, making him thirty-four years old. This would be Seattle’s third 1st round pick in the 2021 NHL draft, and they would appear to be doing something similar to the Golden Knights’ expansion strategy, as the Knights also had three first rounders to start their franchise off with through expansion draft deals. The difference between them would be that Seattle is acquiring impact players that can help them right away, as opposed to Vegas just collecting cap dumps for players that never suited up for them, such as David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski. It will surely be something interesting to monitor, and we should get more news of these events closer to the actual expansion draft date of July 21st,2021.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Sidney Crosby (NMC)
Forward 2- Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
Forward 3- Jake Guentzel
Forward 4- Bryan Rust
Forward 5- Jeff Carter
Forward 6- Teddy Blueger
Forward 7- Kasperi Kapanen
Defenseman 1- Kris Letang
Defenseman 2- Michael Matheson
Defenseman 3- Brian Dumoulin
Goaltender 1- Tristan Jarry
Notable UFAs- Colton Sceviour, Cody Ceci, Juuso Riikola
Notable Exempt– John Marino, Pierre-Olivier Joseph
Notable Exposed– Jason Zucker, Marcus Pettersson, Brandon Tanev
Our Pick- Brandon Tanev (3.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– Our original pick of Jared McCann was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Fillip Hallander and a 7th round pick. Despite this, Pittsburgh left some intriguing options for the Kraken to choose from in Zucker, Pettersson, and Tanev. While we can make a case for any of the three to be selected by the Kraken in Wednesday’s expansion draft, we believe that Tanev should be the selection. Brandon Tanev is one of the most underrated, high-quality AB players in the history of our metric, and we are shocked the Penguins decided to protect Jeff Carter over him. Despite the fact he makes $3.5 million until the conclusion of the 2025-26 season, we believe he would be a terrific addition to the Kraken’s bottom-six forward group. Tanev has only registered one individually negative AB season in 2016-17 with the Winnipeg Jets at -0.16. Since then, he has registered more scores above +6 than scores below +6 (+11.30, +8.17, +1.11, +6.96 in each year following 16-17). Tanev had the 5th highest score of any Penguins player this season, and the 2nd highest of any Penguins forward, trailing only Kasperi Kapanen’s +8.47. Production wise, Tanev scored seven goals and registered nine assists for sixteen points in thirty-two games this season, while averaging about 14:30 minutes per game. Again, while we could easily see the Kraken opting to select one of Zucker or Pettersson, we believe that Tanev is by far the best choice available, and that the Kraken would be getting a very talented player with this selection.
San Jose Sharks
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Logan Couture
Forward 2- Timo Meier
Forward 3- Tomas Hertl
Forward 4- Kevin Labanc
Forward 5- Evander Kane
Forward 6- Jonathan Dahlen
Forward 7- Rudolfs Balcers
Defenseman 1- Erik Karlsson (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC)
Defenseman 3- Brent Burns
Goaltender 1- Adin Hill
Notable UFAs- Marcus Sorensen, Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Greg Pateryn
Notable Exempt– Ryan Merkley, Alexander Barabanov, Noah Gregor, Joel Kellman
Notable Exposed– Ryan Donato, Matt Nieto, Radim Simek, Martin Jones
Our Pick– Ryan Donato (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– We were unable to post an article about the Adin Hill trade, but we would obviously protect him over Martin Jones. Protecting Evander Kane and Jonathan Dahlen were unexpected to us, and the pick from San Jose from Seattle just became much easier. In fifty games with the San Jose Sharks this season, Donato scored six goals and registered fourteen assists for twenty points, earning a -2.59 AB score in the process. That score was actually the fifth highest score on the Sharks this season, as they finished with an abysmal -128.56 combined score. Donato had a great season with the Minnesota Wild in 2019-20, as he registered a +4.94 AB score. His career AB score is -0.68, and we believe he could have a similar impact with the Kraken that he had with Minnesota in 19-20 with a bigger role and some ice time. The Sharks didn’t give the Kraken very many options, but we could see them selecting Matt Nieto as we wrote in our last expansion article.
St. Louis Blues
Option: 7 forwards, 3 skaters, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Ryan O’Reilly
Forward 2- Brayden Schenn
Forward 3- David Perron
Forward 4- Oskar Sundqvist
Forward 5- Ivan Barbashev
Forward 6- Robert Thomas
Forward 7- Jordan Kyrou
Defenseman 1- Torey Krug
Defenseman 2- Justin Faulk
Defenseman 3- Colton Parayko
Goaltender 1- Jordan Binnington
Notable UFAs- Jaden Schwartz, Tyler Bozak, Mike Hoffman
Notable Exempt– Dakota Joshua, Klim Kostin, Jake Neighbours
Notable Exposed– Vladimir Tarasenko, Zach Sanford, Marco Scandella, Vince Dunn, Sammy Blais
Our Pick– Vladimir Tarasenko (7.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– This is the third and most significant trade of our projection article. Vladimir Tarasenko recently requested a trade out of St. Louis, and we believe Seattle is a perfect place for him to attempt his comeback from injuries to return to the elite player we all know and love. He has been one of the best players in the league in all facets, including AB throughout his time in the NHL, as he has a +6.79 career AB score over a nine year period, including two seasons where he registered +15 or higher individual scores. This season however, he registered his first negative season of his career as a result of his injuries, yet still managed to record 14 points in 24 games with the Blues. This is another example of a team desperately needing money to sign their high profile restricted free agents such as Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, so clearing Tarasenko’s $7.5 million in one trade is definitely something we expect GM Doug Armstrong to look into. There have been rumors that Tarasenko wanted to play for an Eastern Conference contender such as the New York Islanders, Boston Bruins, or Carolina Hurricanes, however, a trade to Seattle would be out of his control, and if Doug Armstrong were willing to part with St. Louis’ 16th overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft, they would probably get their cap relief. This trade would give Seattle their instant face of the franchise, as well as their first line winger to play with either Johansen or McCann in our projection, in addition to their 4th first round pick. This trade is the one we hope to see happen the most, as we feel it would be a great storyline to monitor until the end of Tarasenko’s contract. In some ways, he could be Seattle’s version of James Neal, as a healthy Tarasenko is a shoo-in for 25-30 goals and 60-70 points without question.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Option: 8 skaters, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
Forward 2- Steven Stamkos (NMC)
Forward 3- Brayden Point
Forward 4- Ondrej Palat
Forward 5- Anthony Cirelli
Forward 6- Yanni Gourde
Forward 7- Mathieu Joseph
Defenseman 1- Victor Hedman
Defenseman 2- Mikhail Sergachev
Defenseman 3- Ryan McDonagh
Goaltender 1- Andrei Vasilevskiy
Extra Protected: Erik Cernak
Notable UFAs- Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn
Notable Exempt– NONE
Notable Exposed– Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, Mathieu Joseph, Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, Patrick Maroon, Mitchell Stephens, Ross Colton, Erik Cernak, Jan Rutta, Cal Foote
Our Pick– Cal Foote (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation- We thought Tampa Bay would go for the 7-3-1 option, and we were wrong about Palat, Gourde, and Joseph being protected. In our overall calculation of accuracy, we counted Tampa Bay as 5/9 possible protections, as we docked ourselves four points for wrongly protecting Gourde, Palat, and Joseph, and not protecting Cernak. With that being said, the Kraken have a variety of options for their selection here, and we believe they will bypass the elite forward talent in favor of promising young defenseman Cal Foote. The 14th overall pick in the 2017 NHL draft had a solid rookie season for the back-to-back champion Lightning with a goal and two assists for three points in thirty-five games. This earned him a +2.05 AB score, which is his Career AB as well given that he has only played one season. Multiple NHL executives share our belief that Foote could have been a Top-4 defenseman on many NHL teams, and could have easily stepped in for Erik Cernak had he been the Kraken’s selection. Foote has tremendous upside, and we believe this pick will be easier to make then one of the hefty contracts available. There could be a side deal involved here as well, as Tampa Bay needs to clear eighteen million dollars in cap space prior to the start of next season, as they are not currently cap compliant. This is one of the most interesting selections in the draft, and we will be paying significant attention to this pick until Wednesday night.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Option: 8 skaters, 1 goaltender
Skater 1- Auston Matthews
Skater 2- Mitch Marner
Skater 3- William Nylander
Skater 4- John Tavares (NMC)
Skater 5- Morgan Reilly
Skater 6- Jake Muzzin
Skater 7- T.J. Brodie
Skater 8- Justin Holl
Goaltender 1- Jack Campbell
Notable UFAs- Zach Hyman, Riley Nash, Nick Foligno, Alex Galchenyuk, Joe Thornton, Zach Bogosian, Ben Hutton, Frederik Andersen, David Rittich
Notable Exempt– Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Robertson, Rodion Amirov, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren
Notable Exposed– Jared McCann, Alex Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall, Travis Dermott, Wayne Simmonds, Adam Brooks, Jason Spezza
Our Pick– Jared McCann (2.94m)
Our Pick Explanation– Despite the fact Toronto traded Fillip Hallander and a 7th round pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Jared McCann before the trade freeze yesterday, the Leafs still opted for the eight skater, one goalie option, leaving McCann exposed. Unless there is a side deal involved, we believe Seattle selects McCann, as we said in our other article. It was rumored that Ron Francis wanted a 1st and a 3rd round pick from teams in order to stay away from certain players in the expansion draft. If McCann was on Seattle’s radar anyway, perhaps Kyle Dubas paid the price of Hallander and a 7th in order to ensure the Kraken select him as opposed to a player off his 2020-21 roster. With all this being said, Jared McCann has the opportunity to be Seattle’s version of William Karlsson in our opinion. Like Karlsson, McCann also had an insanely high individual season AB score heading into the expansion draft, as he registered an outstanding +11.74 score in 2020-21, to Karlsson’s +6.64 in 2016-17. Jared McCann also had the highest AB score on the Pittsburgh Penguins team this season with the +11.74, and even contributed 14 goals and 18 assists for 32 points in 43 games. McCann would’ve been a nice add for the Maple Leafs’ 2021-22 team, and he still very well could play for them. It’ll be something to watch for sure.
Vancouver Canucks
Option: 7 skater, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Elias Pettersson
Forward 2- Brock Boeser
Forward 3- J.T. Miller
Forward 4- Tanner Pearson
Forward 5- Tyler Motte
Forward 6- Bo Horvat
Forward 7- Jason Dickinson
Defenseman 1- Tyler Myers
Defenseman 2- Olli Juolevi
Defenseman 3- Nate Schmidt
Goaltender 1- Thatcher Demko
Notable UFAs- Brandon Sutter, Sven Baertschi, Jimmy Vesey, Alex Edler, Travis Hamonic
Notable Exempt– Quinn Hughes, Nils Hoglander, Vasily Podkolzin, Jett Woo, Michael DiPietro
Notable Exposed– Louie Eriksson, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Zack MacEwen, Matthew Highmore, Madison Bowey, Braden Holtby, Kole Lind, Jake Virtanen
Our Pick– Kole Lind (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– We were unable to post an article about the Jason Dickinson trade, but we would obviously have protected him. Exposing Jake Virtanen was something we didn’t see coming however, despite the fact he probably won’t be claimed by Seattle due to his pending legal issues. With that being said, Vancouver’s 2nd round selection in the 2017 NHL draft, Kole Lind, is another player we believe has extremely high upside at a low cost. In one-hundred-twenty-six games with the Utica Comets of the AHL, Lind scored twenty-two goals, and registered forty-six assists for seventy points. We don’t have any AB data available for Lind, as he has yet to play enough games in the NHL. In our opinion, he is the most intriguing option available of Vancouver’s exposed list of primarily bad contracts. There could be a side deal for Seattle to take one of these bad deals, but we will have to see on Wednesday night whether anything comes to fruition on that front.
Washington Capitals
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Daniel Sprong
Forward 2- Nicklas Backstrom (NMC)
Forward 3- Evgeny Kuznetsov
Forward 4- T.J. Oshie
Forward 5- Anthony Mantha
Forward 6- Tom Wilson
Forward 7- Lars Eller
Defenseman 1- John Carlson
Defenseman 2- Dmitry Orlov
Defenseman 3- Trevor van Riemsdyk
Goaltender 1- Ilya Samsonov
Notable UFAs- Alexander Ovechkin,Michael Raffl, Zdeno Chara, Craig Anderson
Notable Exempt– Connor McMichael, Alexander Alexeyev
Notable Exposed– Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd, Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz, Brenden Dillon, Nick Jensen, Michal Kempny, Vitek Vanecek
Our Pick– Vitek Vanecek (715k)
Our Pick Explanation– Despite the exposure of Justin Schultz, we believe the Kraken still select Vanecek here. However, with Carey Price being exposed, we don’t believe Vanecek will be the starter we thought he’d be in our last article. Seattle gets their backup goaltender with this pick, and in our opinion, one of the best goaltenders available in expansion. In 37 games as the Capitals starter this season, Vanecek posted a 21-10-4 record with 2 shutouts and a .908 save percentage, leading the Capitals to a playoff berth where they were eliminated by the Boston Bruins in the first round. He is a restricted free agent, and at twenty-five years old, has a chance to be a quality starter for the Kraken from day one. This choice also allows Seattle to reach the minimum number of goaltenders selected (3) in the expansion draft. We could see Washington protecting Vanecek and exposing Ilya Samsonov, and in that case, Samsonov would be the pick. Like Ottawa, we believe the selection from Washington will definitely be a goalie barring a pre-expansion draft trade, but we will continue to monitor the Kraken’s interest in a defenseman like Brenden Dillon perhaps.
Winnipeg Jets
Option: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Forward 1- Blake Wheeler (NMC)
Forward 2- Mark Scheifele
Forward 3- Pierre-Luc Dubois
Forward 4- Kyle Connor
Forward 5- Nikolaj Ehlers
Forward 6- Adam Lowry
Forward 7- Andrew Copp
Defenseman 1- Josh Morrissey
Defenseman 2- Neal Pionk
Defenseman 3- Logan Stanley
Goaltender 1- Connor Hellebuyck
Notable UFAs- Paul Stastny, Mathieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, Trevor Lewis, Jordie Benn, Derek Forbort
Notable Exempt– Cole Perfetti, Kristian Vesalainen, Ville Heinola
Notable Exposed– Mason Appleton, Jansen Harkins, Dominic Toninato, Dylan DeMelo, Nathan Beaulieu
Our Pick– Dylan DeMelo (3m)
Our Pick Explanation– Despite the fact the Jets exposed Mason Appleton, we still believe the Kraken will select Dylan DeMelo. As we wrote in our last article, DeMelo was acquired by the Jets at last year’s trade deadline in exchange for a 3rd round pick from the Ottawa Senators. This season with the Jets, DeMelo registered his first positive AB season since his rookie year in 2015-16 with a +1.34, a clear sign of improvement in our eyes. DeMelo would be someone the Jets would most likely protect under normal circumstances, however, with the emergence of recent first round pick Logan Stanley, it is logical to assume the Jets would choose to keep the younger, more upside Stanley over DeMelo. That being said, Seattle gets another solid, impact defenseman to build its inaugural team, to conclude the expansion draft.
Recap: The graphic below displayed our lists accuracy to the real submitted protection lists for the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. We gave ourselves a point for each list format (8 skater, 1 goalie or 7 forward, 3 defensemen, 1 goalie option) that we had correct, as well as the actual number of protected players we were right about as well. We had two perfect lists in Boston and Minnesota and missed only one player on ten teams for an 83% overall accuracy. As we mentioned earlier in the article, we thought Tampa Bay would go for the 7-3-1 option, and we were wrong about Palat, Gourde, and Joseph being protected. In our overall calculation of accuracy, we counted Tampa Bay as 5/9 possible protections, as we docked ourselves four points for wrongly protecting Gourde, Palat, and Joseph, and not protecting Cernak.
Below is the depth chart for our projected Seattle Kraken team post-protection list submission.
Centers
1C- Ryan Johansen NSH (-2.59 2020-21 AB) (-1.5 Career AB)
2C- Jared McCann TOR (+11.74 2020-21 AB) (+4.11 Career AB)
3C- J.T. Compher COL (+5.48 2020-21 AB) (-0.86 Career AB)
4C- Ryan Donato SJS (-2.59 2020-21 AB) (-0.67 Career AB)
Left Wingers
1LW- Jakub Voracek PHI (-4.01 2020-21 AB) (+0.27 Career AB)
2LW- Andreas Johnsson NJD (+0.20 2020-21 AB) (+2.39 Career AB)
3LW- Kieffer Bellows NYI (+2.37 2020-21 AB) (+2.37 Career AB)
4LW- Tanner Kero DAL (+0.64 2020-21 AB) (+3.95 Career AB)
Extra- Tyler Benson (0 2020-21 AB) (0 Career AB)
Right Wingers
1RW- Vladimir Tarasenko STL (-1.64 2020-21 AB) (+6.79 Career AB)
2RW- Brandon Tanev PIT (+6.96 2020-21 AB) (+5.47 Career AB)
3RW- Tyler Pitlick ARI (-1.21 2020-21 AB) (+1.83 Career AB)
4RW- Kevin Stenlund CBJ (-1.36 2020-21 AB) (+0.44 Career AB)
Extra- Kole Lind VAN (0 2020-21 AB) (0 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 1
LD- Mark Giordano (+2.09 2020-21 AB) (+1.73 Career AB)
RD- Dylan DeMelo (+1.34 2020-21 AB) (-1.12 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 2
LD- Carson Soucy MIN (+6.96 2020-21 AB) (+7.62 Career AB)
RD- Radko Gudas (+2.62 2020-21 AB) (-1.54 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 3
LD- Olli Maatta LAK (-4.01 2020-21 AB) (+2.41 Career AB)
RD- Cal Foote TBL (+2.05 2020-21 AB) (+2.04 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 4
LD- Jake Bean CAR (-1.52 2020-21 AB) (-1.52 Career AB)
RD- Haydn Fleury ANA (-7.11 2020-21 AB) (-1.91 Career AB)
Extra
Will Borgen BUF (-6.20 2020-21 AB) (-6.20 Career AB)
Jakub Zboril BOS (-0.68 2020-21 AB) (-0.68 Career AB)
Troy Stecher DET (-8.19 2020-21 AB) (-1.81 Career AB)
Goaltender 1- Carey Price MTL
Goaltender 2- Vitek Vanecek WSH
Goaltender 3- Malcom Subban CHI
Goaltender 4- Joey Daccord OTT
Team AB 2020-21= +3.16 (3rd in Pacific Division)
Projected Team AB 2021-22 (Career AB)= +27.12 (2nd in Pacific Division)
We still project the Kraken to have 2-3 additional first round picks in Friday’s 2021 NHL draft through trades, in addition to all of their own selections. Keep in mind these are the selections we would make if we were Kraken management, not what we believe they are actually going to do. We hope you have enjoyed this article, as well as our other expansion draft related material, as we are planning to write another massive piece on Seattle’s real selections after the draft on Wednesday, and specific features on certain players if they are chosen. Thank you for reading. Much more to come.
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