Now that the Tampa Bay Lightning have officially defeated the Montreal Canadiens to capture their second consecutive Stanley Cup, the busiest NHL offseason in recent memory is set to begin. In the next 20 days, general managers will need to navigate the expansion process, make their respective selections in a complicated 2021 NHL draft, as well as finish any last minute preparations for 2021 free agency. However, the first order of business is to compile Expansion Draft protection lists by 5pm EST on July 17th, which is why we wanted to release this mock expansion draft immediately following the Finals. After the protection lists are submitted, we will conduct a review on our work in this article, in addition to publishing new projections based on the submitted lists prior to the July 21st expansion draft. Once the Kraken make their actual selections, we will compare their picks to our predictions and project the order of finish in the Pacific Division before the start of free agency, to get a glimpse of how Seattle’s team may fare. With that being said, let us go over the rules and criteria for those that may be unaware.
First, this work could not be possible without the outstanding people at CapFriendly.com, who have put together a mock expansion draft calculator for fans to make their projections. All of the features, criteria, and rules in this article will be exactly as it is on their tool. One of the best things about their Expansion Draft Tool, is that they immediately factor in whether your mock protection list meets NHL exposure requirements or not. For those that are unaware, the exposure requirements state that teams must leave at least two forwards who are under contract during the 2021-22 season who have played either 40 games in the 2020-21 NHL season, or a combined 70+ games in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, as well as one defenseman under the same criteria. In addition to that, each team must expose one goaltender who is either under contract in 2021-22 or who is a restricted free agent currently. Also, note that players who have no-trade or no-movement clauses in their contracts must be protected, unless said player agrees to waive it to be exposed. All players who have played in two or fewer NHL seasons, in addition to unsigned draft picks are exempt from the expansion draft. In our analysis, we will provide which protection list option we would opt to submit if we were running each of the thirty clubs, as well as the UFAs exposed, notable exempt players, notable exposed players, who we would select if we were Ron Francis and the Seattle Kraken. It is also worth reminding that the Vegas Golden Knights are exempt from this expansion draft, and Seattle will not be selecting a player from their organization here. We will try to also examine whether trade possibilities could be in play with certain teams based on their situations as well. The format of this article will be very similar to that of our Vegas Expansion Draft work from years ago. Let’s get started!
Anaheim Ducks
Skater 1- Rickard Rakell
Skater 2- Troy Terry
Skater 3- Danton Heinen
Skater 4- Isac Lundestrom
Skater 5- Cam Fowler
Skater 6- Hampus Lindholm
Skater 7- Josh Manson
Skater 8- Haydn Fleury
Goaltender 1- John Gibson
Notable UFAs– Ryan Getzlaf, David Backes, Carter Rowney
Notable Exempt– Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, Maxime Comtois
Notable Exposed– Kevin Shattenkirk, Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrqiue, Sonny Milano, Sam Steel, Max Jones, Nicholas Deslauriers, Jacob Larsson, Josh Mahura
Our Pick– Carter Rowney (UFA)
Our Pick Explanation: None of the players exposed by Anaheim under this protection list format are particularly enticing to us. Shattenkirk, Silfverberg, and Henrique all have multiple years remaining with high AAV as players on the wrong side of 30. Although they are young, recent first round talents, Steel, Jones, and Larsson have been extremely below average AB players since entering the league and haven’t produced on the points side as much as Ducks management had hoped for. Of all the players available under this protection list, Carter Rowney has a decent career AB score of -1.03 over a five-year span. He’s a solid penalty killer and had a career-year on an abysmal 2019-20 Ducks team, registering the team’s best individual AB score that season with a +2.82. the team itself, registered a -76.88 score which showed just how well Rowney played compared to several of his teammates. Rowney has never made over $1.3 million in one NHL season, so if Seattle were to sign him in their UFA window prior to him hitting the open market, he could be a cheap, reliable, bottom-six option for them. As far as production is concerned, Rowney played in 90 games in the last two seasons, scoring 8 goals and registering 17 assists for 25 points. He played 17 fewer games than Sam Steel, who had 9 more points in that span, and 15 less games than Max Jones, who he had 2 more points than in the same span. It’s also worth noting that Canadian forwards under Dave Hakstol, Seattle’s head coach, register average AB scores of +0.29, and his 69% advantage percentage is the 2nd best among the 96 coaches we examined in our study (best among active coaches). Interestingly enough, Rowney played for Dave Hakstol at the University of North Dakota, so there is a connection there. He played for Hakstol from 2009-10 to 2012-13, registering 32 goals and 41 assists for 73 points in 150 games, which included a Frozen Four appearance. Rowney registered a -0.76 score last season, and if that number improves to at least Hakstol’s average of +0.29, then a potentially $1.5 million investment for someone who isn’t going to negatively impact the team as well as kill penalties may be a smart decision here. We believe there is a fit here for Rowney if Seattle pursues it, and they could even try to get a pick or a prospect in exchange for taking Rowney if Anaheim wants to keep their young players. However, if Anaheim decides to leave Danton Heinen unprotected, which we don’t think they will despite it being possible, he should absolutely be Seattle’s pick. The ideal scenario for Seattle would be Heinen being exposed and selected in addition to signing Rowney in free agency later on, however, we will reevaluate after protection lists are released.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward 1- Phil Kessel (NMC)
Forward 2- Clayton Keller
Forward 3- Nick Schmaltz
Forward 4- Christian Dvorak
Forward 5- Conor Garland
Forward 6- Lawson Crouse
Forward 7- Christian Fischer
Defenseman 1- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Jakob Chychrun
Defenseman 3- Kyle Capobianco
Goaltender 1- Darcy Kuemper
Notable UFAs- Derick Brassard, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Antti Raanta, Michael Bunting
Notable Exempt– Barrett Hayton, Liam Kirk, Victor Soderstrom
Notable Exposed– Tyler Pitlick, Johan Larsson, Adin Hill
Our Pick– Tyler Pitlick (1.75m)
Explanation- Arizona’s pick is one of the easier ones to evaluate of the 30 teams in the process. The pick will most likely come down to a choice between Tyler Pitlick and goaltender Adin Hill. We believe that there will be a variety of goaltenders for Seattle to choose from, and a good amount that we would select over Hill. Pitlick however, has been one of the more underrated players in the league AB wise, as he has a career AB score of +1.83 in a seven-year span. He has even registered a +7.17 score in 2019-20 with the Philadelphia Flyers, and a +4.08 score with the Dallas Stars. Dave Hakstol’s second best nationality position group according to our coach’s study was American born forwards, and Pitlick is from Minneapolis Minnesota. Pitlick has a year left at $1.75 million AAV before he becomes a UFA at age twenty-nine. He is another player that could be solid in Seattle’s bottom-six forward group, and we expect him to be selected unless he is protected, or Seattle opts for Adin Hill.
Boston Bruins
Forward 1- Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
Forward 2- Brad Marchand (NMC)
Forward 3- Charlie Coyle (NMC)
Forward 4- David Pastrnak
Forward 5- Craig Smith
Forward 6- Jake DeBrusk
Forward 7- Trent Frederic
Defenseman 1- Charlie McAvoy
Defenseman 2- Brandon Carlo
Defenseman 3- Matt Grzelcyk
Goaltender 1- Daniel Vladar
Notable UFAs- David Krejci, Taylor Hall, Sean Kuraly, Mike Reilly, Kevan Miller, Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak
Notable Exempt– Jack Studnicka, Jeremy Swayman
Notable Exposed– Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie, Chris Wagner, Curtis Lazar, Anton Blidh, Zach Senyshyn, John Moore, Jakub Zboril, Connor Clifton
Our Pick– Jakub Zboril (725k)
Our Pick Explanation: Jakub Zboril was Boston’s first of three 1st round picks in the loaded 2015 NHL draft (13th overall) and had a solid rookie season with the Bruins this year. The twenty-four year old registered nine assists for nine points in forty-two games played this season with the team and had a solid -0.68 rookie AB score. We think he is capable of building off that successful rookie year and has a chance to be a very good bottom pair defenseman for the Kraken next season on a cheap contract as well. Defensemen born outside of the US, Canada, Sweden, Finland, and Russia, or “Other” as we referred to it as in our coach’s study, happened to be Dave Hakstol’s 2nd best defensive group with an average AB score of -0.95, slightly worse than Zboril’s -0.68 score from this season. He played a solid number of minutes for Bruce Cassidy’s Bruins this season at 17:03 average TOI, and we think he is ready to do that and potentially more with the Kraken, if Hakstol believes in him enough. This could be Seattle’s version of Brayden McNabb, talented prospect who just needed a change of scenery and the right coaching. McNabb was even two years older than Zboril is now at the time of his expansion draft. McNabb’s first year AB with Vegas was +9.98 and he’s only registered one negative season with the team at -0.47 in 2019-20. Granted he had a +1.14 career AB score at the time of his expansion draft, his score the year of the draft was -1.56, which turned around due to proper coaching. Zboril could potentially have the same impact at a cheaper cost and a younger age. However, if Trent Frederic or Jake DeBrusk are exposed by the Bruins, Seattle must take them into consideration as well. Seattle is going to get a very good player from Boston, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a shot at Ondrej Kase, as he is another high-AB forward who is twenty-five years old and an RFA.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward 1- Jeff Skinner (NMC)
Forward 2- Jack Eichel
Forward 3- Sam Reinhart
Forward 4- Victor Olofsson
Forward 5- Anders Bjork
Forward 6- Casey Mittlestadt
Forward 7- Tage Thompson
Defenseman 1- Rasmus Dahlin
Defenseman 2- Rasmus Ristolainen
Defenseman 3- Henri Jokiharju
Goaltender 1- Linus Ullmark (UFA)
Notable UFAs- Jake McCabe, Matt Irwin, Carter Hutton, Riley Sheahan, Drake Caggiula
Notable Exempt– Arttu Ruotsalainen, Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, John-Jason Peterka, Jacob Bryson, Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen
Notable Exposed– Colin Miller, Zemgus Girgensons, Cody Eakin, Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Asplund, William Borgen
Our Pick– Rasmus Asplund (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Buffalo would be making a huge mistake to expose Asplund in our opinion. Buffalo’s 2016 2nd round pick was one of the few bright spots on a Sabres team who finished last in the league this season. The twenty-three year old had seven goals and four assists for eleven points in twenty-eight games this season and registered a +2.31 individual AB score (the best score on a -134.13 combined AB team). Asplund is the only player we’d really be interested in unless Seattle found a way to get Jeff Skinner at salary retained cost or get paid premium assets such as picks or prospects to take his whole salary. Buffalo should be protecting a player like Asplund, as he is definitely one of their better, young forwards in our opinion, however, if they decide to protect Tage Thompson, which is definitely a possibility, then Asplund left exposed will be tempting for the Kraken to pass on. In our opinion, whoever Buffalo decides to expose between Asplund, and Thompson will be the Seattle pick unless there’s a trade, which is entirely possible.
Calgary Flames
Forward 1- Johnny Gaudreau
Forward 2- Sean Monahan
Forward 3- Matthew Tkachuk
Forward 4- Andrew Mangiapane
Forward 5- Elias Lindholm
Forward 6- Dillon Dube
Forward 7- Dominik Simon
Defenseman 1- Mark Giordano
Defenseman 2- Noah Hanifin
Defenseman 3- Rasmus Andersson
Goaltender 1- Jacob Markstrom (NMC)
NMC Waived- Milan Lucic
Notable UFAs- Derek Ryan, Josh Leivo, Zac Rinaldo, Michael Stone, Nikita Nesterov
Notable Exempt– Connor Zary, Jakob Pelletier, Juuso Valimaki, Dustin Wolf
Notable Exposed– Milan Lucic, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington, Mikael Backlund
Our Pick– Chris Tanev (4.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– Unless they sign someone, Calgary would need Lucic to waive his NMC in order to meet exposure requirements. We think Seattle is unlikely to take either Lucic or Backlund, as both have very expensive cap hits. Tanev however, would be a home run for the Seattle Kraken if they can pull it off. It all comes down to whether or not Calgary is comfortable exposing their captain, Mark Giordano, as Seattle would most likely take him if he were available. However, Chris Tanev would be a Top-4 defenseman on almost every team in the NHL today, and he’s one of the best defensemen according to AB as well. His +6.81 individual AB score this season was the best on the Flames roster this season, and he has an impressive +2.56 career AB score in eleven NHL seasons. He’s 31 years old and makes $4.5 million until the conclusion of the 2023-24 season. His former Vancouver Canucks teammates had nothing but great things to say about Tanev after he left for Calgary last offseason, and his impact was certainly missed by Quinn Hughes especially, as it was reported that Markstrom and Tanev were big mentors to Hughes and fellow Canucks star Elias Pettersson, which may have been a contributing factor to the Canucks struggles this season. We believe Tanev checks all the boxes as a locker room presence that can help a new team bond together, as they’ve never played together before. This should be a no-brainer, and we don’t even think a trade could prevent this from happening unless Seattle could get one of Pelletier or Zary, which is unlikely.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward 1- Jordan Staal (NMC)
Forward 2- Sebastian Aho
Forward 3- Teuvo Teravainen
Forward 4- Nino Niederreiter
Forward 5- Andrei Svechnikov
Forward 6- Vincent Trocheck
Forward 7- Morgan Geekie
Defenseman 1- Brett Pesce
Defenseman 2- Jaccob Slavin
Defenseman 3- Jake Bean
Goaltender 1- Alex Nedeljkovic
Notable UFAs- Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook, Cedric Paquette, Dougie Hamilton, Jani Hakanpaa, James Reimer, Peter Mrazek
Notable Exempt– Martin Necas, Seth Jarvis, Ryan Suzuki, Dominik Bokk
Notable Exposed– Brady Skjei, Jake Gardiner, Warren Foegele, Jesper Fast
Our Pick– Warren Foegele (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Warren Foegele is a player that is rumored to be done in Carolina, and a possible trade is being discussed according to insiders around the league. However, if by some chance Carolina leaves Jake Bean exposed, Seattle should be in on him. We find that event incredibly unlikely as Foegele appears to be a logical pick here. We believe, if Carolina exposes him due to an inability to trade, Foegele should be the pick over Brady Skjei and Jake Gardiner for many reasons. First, and most obvious, the contract situation provides Seattle with more flexibility as Foegele is an RFA. Gardiner makes $4.05 million until the 2023-24 season, and Skjei makes $5.25 million until the 2024-25 season, which are high cap hits for struggling defensemen. Skjei only had 10 points this season to Gardiner’s 8, which is clearly underwhelming for players making that much money. Foegele outscored both of them combined this season registering 10 goals and 10 assists for 20 points in 53 games. AB Wise, Brady Skjei had his best individual AB performance since his rookie year at a +0.77, Gardiner had his second consecutive negative season at -2.12, and Foegele had the 8th best score on the team with a +3.62, which was his highest score to date. Foegele is coming off back-to-back +3 individual AB seasons, which could be beneficial to Seattle’s bottom six with the players we’ve projected to this point in the article. We hope Seattle doesn’t take a chance on Skjei, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward 1- Jonathan Toews (NMC)
Forward 2- Patrick Kane (NMC)
Forward 3- Alex DeBrincat
Forward 4- Dylan Strome
Forward 5- Henrik Borgstrom
Forward 6- Brandon Hagel
Forward 7- David Kampf
Defenseman 1- Duncan Keith (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Connor Murphy
Defenseman 3- Nikita Zadorov
Goaltender 1- Kevin Lankinen
Notable UFAs- Zack Smith, Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri,
Notable Exempt– Dominik Kubalik, Kirby Dach, Philipp Kurashev, Lukas Reichel, Adam Boqvist, Pius Suter
Notable Exposed– Calvin De Hann, Malcom Subban, Brett Connolly, Riley Stillman, Adam Gaudette, Ryan Carpenter
Our Pick– Riley Stillman (1.35m)
Our Pick Explanation– Chicago is rumored to be in trade talks with teams regarding Duncan Keith. If that happens, then they’ll most likely use the extra protection slot on Riley Stillman, as we really don’t think they want to lose him for nothing. Stillman played an average of 13:21 for coach Jeremy Colliton this season in his thirteen games with the team after being acquired from the Florida Panthers prior to the trade deadline. Stillman had the best AB score of any defenseman on the Blackhawks this past season at +1.83 and had the 4th best score on the team as a whole. Stillman had a goal in those thirteen games for his only point, however he had three assists in a five game stint with the Syracuse Crunch in the AHL. Stillman only makes $1.35 until 2024-25, when he becomes an RFA at twenty-six years old. This is a player Seattle could have under team control for potentially the rest of his career. We believe he has incredible upside and could flourish under better coaching and more ice time. We’ll have to wait and see what Chicago does with Keith however, as our next article may have Seattle taking someone different to account for a potential deal there.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward 1- Nathan MacKinnon
Forward 2- Mikko Rantanen
Forward 3- Andre Burakovsky
Forward 4- Nazem Kadri
Forward 5- Gabriel Landeskog (UFA)
Forward 6- Valeri Nichushkin
Forward 7- Tyson Jost
Defenseman 1- Cale Makar
Defenseman 2- Devon Toews
Defenseman 3- Samuel Girard
Goaltender 1- Philip Grubauer (UFA)
NMC Waived- Erik Johnson
Notable UFAs- Brandon Saad, Matt Calvert, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Patrik Nemeth, Devan Dubnyk
Notable Exempt– Shane Bowers, Alex Newhook, Pavel Francouz, Bowen Byram
Notable Exposed– Erik Johnson, J.T. Compher, Ryan Graves, Joonas Donskoi
Our Pick– Ryan Graves (3.166m)
Our Pick Explanation– We believe Colorado will be able to keep their forward group together in this expansion draft, however they will lose a Top-4 defenseman in Ryan Graves. If Erik Johnson declines to waive is NMC, then Colorado will risk losing one of Graves, Girard, or Toews, which could be catastrophic. In this scenario however, Graves is a no-brainer for the Kraken if he is the one available. AB wise, Graves has only registered one negative individual AB season at -0.47 in his rookie year, then returned with an incredible +16.16 in his sophomore season before his +3.02 score this season. In his last two seasons, Ryan Graves has played in 123 games, scoring 11 goals, and registering 30 assists for 41 points as well as an outstanding +55 +/-. In our scenario, a pairing of Ryan Graves and Chris Tanev could be one of the most interesting parings in hockey and could be incredibly fun to watch next season. We have the Avs protecting Landeskog and Grubauer only because Seattle could talk to them earlier than every other NHL team, as well as all other pending unrestricted free agents, about potentially signing a deal with the Kraken. It isn’t worth the risk for the Avalanche in our opinion to expose Landeskog and potentially lose him due to the extended negotiation window Seattle has. Protecting Grubauer is also done in this scenario for insurance purposes, as Seattle most likely wouldn’t be interested in Colorado’s remaining goaltenders over players like Donskoi and Graves, who could make a significant early impact on their team.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward 1- Cam Atkinson
Forward 2- Gustav Nyquist
Forward 3- Patrik Laine
Forward 4- Boone Jenner
Forward 5- Oliver Bjorkstrand
Forward 6- Jack Roslovic
Forward 7- Kevin Stenlund
Defenseman 1- Seth Jones
Defenseman 2- Zach Werenski
Defenseman 3- Vladislav Gavrikov
Goaltender 1- Joonas Korpisalo
Notable UFAs- Zac Dalpe, Stefan Matteau, Michael Del Zotto
Notable Exempt– Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier, Liam Foudy, Elvis Merzlikins
Notable Exposed– Max Domi, Eric Robinson, Dean Kukan, Nathan Gerbe
Our Pick– Eric Robinson (975k)
Our Pick Explanation– Although Domi had his worst individual AB season this year at -12.69 (2nd worst on CBJ ahead of only Patrik Laine) he is still a tempting pick here due to his past production in certain areas. However, we believe Eric Robinson is one of the most underrated players in the NHL today, and his AB scores show it. His +3.77 score on the -97.41 2020-21 Columbus Blue Jackets was the best on the team by over two points, and his +5.33 score in 2019-20 was also the best on the team. Robinson has an outstanding career AB of +4.55, which puts him into consideration for this spot without a doubt. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season.
Dallas Stars
Forward 1- Tyler Seguin (NMC)
Forward 2- Jamie Benn (NMC)
Forward 3- Alexander Radulov (NMC)
Forward 4- Joe Pavelski
Forward 5- Radek Faksa
Forward 6- Roope Hintz
Forward 7- Denis Gurianov
Defenseman 1- Miro Heiskanen
Defenseman 2- John Klingberg
Defenseman 3- Esa Lindell
Goaltender 1- Ben Bishop (NMC)
Notable UFAs- Jamie Oleksiak, Sami Vatanen, Mark Pysyk, Andrew Cogliano, Justin Dowling
Notable Exempt– Joel Kiviranta, Ty Dellandrea, Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley, Jake Oettinger
Notable Exposed– Andrej Sekera, Blake Comeau, Jason Dickinson, Tanner Kero, Nicholas Cammano
Our Pick– Jason Dickinson (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Jason Dickinson is a highly talented defensive center who is twenty-six years old. In our four years of data on him, he has registered above a +5 AB score twice, and has yet to register a negative season in his career. He is a restricted free agent this offseason, and projects to make somewhere between 2-3 million. He would be a perfect 3rd line center for this Kraken team, as most of our players drafted to this point are primarily wingers. This pick is a no-brainer for us, and Seattle would be making a mistake passing on him in our opinion. Dallas most likely doesn’t want to lose Dickinson for nothing, and a potential trade here makes sense. If Dickinson is protected, which is very possible, whichever forward Dallas does not protect out of Faksa, Pavelski, Hintz, or Dickinson is who Seattle should take here. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Andrej Sekera be selected here as well, as he had a great AB season this year too.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward 1- Dylan Larkin
Forward 2- Jakub Vrana
Forward 3- Tyler Bertuzzi
Forward 4- Robby Fabbri
Forward 5- Michael Rasmussen
Forward 6- Adam Erne
Forward 7- Evgeny Svechnikov
Defenseman 1- Filip Hronek
Defenseman 2- Dennis Cholowski
Defenseman 3- Troy Stecher
Goaltender 1- Thomas Greiss
Notable UFAs- Darren Helm, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Bobby Ryan, Sam Gagner, Marc Staal, Jonathan Bernier
Notable Exempt– Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Jonathan Berggren
Notable Exposed– Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik, Vladislav Namestnikov, Danny DeKeyser, Christian Djoos,
Our Pick– Christian Djoos (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Seattle doesn’t have very much to work with here, however Christian Djoos could be a very good project for Seattle to experiment with. Djoos has been a very highly positive AB defenseman throughout his career with the Washington Capitals, with the exception of this year, as he registered an abysmal -10.71 score with the Detroit Red Wings. Bottom feeding teams such as Detroit, usually finish with a team AB score anywhere between -70 to -100 or worse, which was the case for the Wings this season. Several players scores appear worse than they really are due to how bad the team was, and we think this could be the case with Djoos, as in Washington, his average AB score was a +5.3. He is a restricted free agent and shouldn’t cost Seattle much cap wise to re-sign him. Detroit isn’t in a position to give up draft picks to move salary, as many of their worst contracts expire after the conclusion of the 2021-22 season, making it unlikely we see a trade. We project Seattle is going to need their cap space for later moves, and we believe Christian Djoos can be a serviceable NHL defenseman for Seattle in the future, as he is still only twenty-six years old.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward 1- Connor McDavid
Forward 2- Leon Draisaitl
Forward 3- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Forward 4- Jesse Puljujarvi
Forward 5- Kailer Yamamoto
Forward 6- Zack Kassian
Forward 7- Dominik Kahun
Defenseman 1- Darnell Nurse
Defenseman 2- Oskar Klefbom
Defenseman 3- Ethan Bear
Goaltender 1- Mikko Koskinen
Notable UFAs- Mike Smith, Adam Larsson, Dmitry Kulikov, Tyson Barrie, Alex Chiasson, Tyler Ennis
Notable Exempt– Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway
Notable Exposed– Kris Russell, Caleb Jones, Josh Archibald, Kyle Turris, James Neal
Our Pick– Caleb Jones (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Caleb Jones is another very interesting player. Similar to Djoos, Jones’ career AB score has taken a hit as a result of playing for one bad team. The 2018-19 Edmonton Oilers finished with a combined team score of -126.76, which was among the worst in the NHL that season. Jones’ AB score that season was -8.09 but saw a massive improvement under new Oilers coach Dave Tippett in 2019-20 with a +0.07 score. This season, it decreased back to a -2.78 score, which still averages out to a -1.35 in two seasons under Tippett. The upside is there with Jones, as he is only twenty-three years old. He only averaged around 13.5 minutes per game this season with the Oilers, however we believe his production will increase with a bigger role. Edmonton has been one of the teams rumored to have interest in Duncan Keith. If they end up acquiring him, then that could leave Ethan Bear or Oskar Klefbom exposed unless they are part of the package going to Chicago. They will be a very interesting team to watch during this expansion period, and we will surely be keeping an eye on them.
Florida Panthers
Forward 1- Jonathan Huberdeau (NMC)
Forward 2- Aleksander Barkov
Forward 3- Sam Bennett
Forward 4- Patrick Hornqvist
Forward 5- Carter Verhaeghe
Forward 6- Anthony Duclair
Forward 7- Frank Vatrano
Defenseman 1- Aaron Ekblad
Defenseman 2- MacKenzie Weegar
Defenseman 3- Markus Nutivaara
Goaltender 1- Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC)
NMC Waived- Keith Yandle
Notable UFAs- Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Montour, Chris Driedger
Notable Exempt– Owen Tippett, Spencer Knight
Notable Exposed– Radko Gudas, Anton Stralman, Keith Yandle, Mason Marchment, Ryan Lomberg, Noel Acciari, Gustav Forsling
Our Pick– Radko Gudas (2.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– Florida had an outstanding year, and a large part of it is due to their terrific defense group. Radko Gudas had a solid year, scoring two goals and registering nine assists for eleven points. He finished with a +2.62 AB score, which was 3rd best of the Panthers’ defense group behind only MacKenzie Weegar’s +13.18, and Gustav Forsling’s +8.5. We could also see the Kraken opting to take Forsling, but Gudas’ grit and toughness is something that the new expansion team will definitely be needing. If Florida opts to protect Gudas over Markus Nutivaara, then we believe Nutivaara will be the Kraken’s selection. This is all dependent on Keith Yandle deciding to move his NMC, and there could be a scenario where both Nutivaara and Gudas are left exposed. Regardless, we believe the Kraken will end up with a solid defenseman from the Panthers, whether it be Gudas, Nutivaara, or Forsling.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward 1- Anze Kopitar
Forward 2- Viktor Arvidsson
Forward 3- Alex Iafallo
Forward 4- Adrian Kempe
Forward 5- Dustin Brown
Forward 6- Andreas Athanasiou
Forward 7- Lias Andersson
Defenseman 1- Drew Doughty (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Matt Roy
Defenseman 3- Kale Clague
Goaltender 1- Cal Petersen
Notable UFAs- Martin Frk
Notable Exempt– Alex Turcotte, Quinton Byfield, Gabriel Vilardi, Arthur Kaliyev, Jaret Anderson-Dolan,
Notable Exposed– Olli Maatta, Sean Walker, Trevor Moore, Brenden Lemieux, Carl Grundstrom, Blake Lizotte
Our Pick– Olli Maatta (3.33m)
Our Pick Explanation– With the Kings acquiring Viktor Arvidsson to fill one of their open forward protection slots, Los Angeles’ defensive protection slots are the ones under examination by us. Drew Doughty must be protected, as he has an NMC, however the combination the Kings can choose from to fill the remaining two slots fascinate us. We decided to protect the defensemen with the two best AB scores on the team this season in Matt Roy and Kale Clague, which we believe makes sense given the cap position the Kings are in as well. Los Angeles is rumored to be in the Jack Eichel sweepstakes and clearing out Sean Walker’s 2.65 million dollar cap hit, or Olli Maatta’s 3.33 million could help LA in taking on Eichel’s full salary should a deal be made. We picked Maatta for Seattle as he has always been a very positive AB defenseman. In his eight NHL seasons, he has registered positive scores five times, but hasn’t registered a positive score since 2018-19 in Pittsburgh. Similar to some of the other players we have selected, we believe that Maatta has been negatively impacted by playing on below average teams, and we don’t project Seattle to be that. Maatta could play in Seattle’s Top-4, and perhaps be one of their better all around defensemen from year one. All this being said, we could definitely see Seattle opting to go with a talented forward in this scenario such as Moore, Lemieux, or Grundstrom, however, we will have to see when protection lists are released whether any of this is even possible.
Minnesota Wild
Forward 1- Zach Parise (NMC)
Forward 2- Mats Zuccarello (NMC)
Forward 3- Kevin Fiala
Forward 4- Ryan Hartman
Forward 5- Nico Sturm
Forward 6- Joel Eriksson Ek
Forward 7- Jordan Greenway
Defenseman 1- Matt Dumba
Defenseman 2- Jonas Brodin
Defenseman 3- Jared Spurgeon
Goaltender 1- Cam Talbot
NMC Waived- Ryan Suter
Notable UFAs- Marcus Johansson, Nick Bonino, Ian Cole
Notable Exempt– Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi, Matthew Boldy, Calen Addison
Notable Exposed– Carson Soucy, Nick Bjugstad, Viktor Rask
Our Pick– Carson Soucy (2.75m)
Our Pick Explanation– Minnesota is one of the most interesting teams to follow during this expansion process. They’re going to lose a very high caliber player regardless of whether Zach Parise or Ryan Suter waive their NMC’s. We believe Suter will without question, but we are more skeptical regarding Parise. Seattle most likely won’t be interested in taking on either player’s mammoth contract, but them waiving could be much more helpful to Wild GM Bill Guerin, as he attempts to protect as many of his key players as possible. It’s very likely that the Wild lose a significant defenseman, as Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon each have NMC’s that probably won’t be waived. This means one of Carson Soucy or Matt Dumba will be left exposed, and perhaps Guerin will be making a trade to accumulate assets for one of these players to prevent losing them for nothing. If no trades are made, we believe whoever is left exposed among Soucy or Dumba is the obvious choice for Seattle, as they immediately get a Top-4 defenseman on a potentially cheap cap hit. We chose Soucy for that reason, as he makes about $3.25 million less that Dumba, and is better AB wise. In his two NHL seasons of data we have on him, Soucy’s career AB score is an impressive +7.62, as he registered a +8.27 in 2019-20, and a +6.96 in his first year under coach Dean Evason. On the other hand, Dumba has failed to register positive individual AB seasons for three consecutive years and has only registered three in his eight year career. If we were Bill Guerin, we would try and move Dumba prior to the expansion draft to protect Soucy, making the Kraken have to chose between Ryan Hartman and Nick Bjugstad. Regardless, Seattle is getting a talented player from Minnesota here, and we will have to see what moves the Wild make prior to the expansion draft if any.
Montreal Canadiens
Forward 1- Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Forward 2- Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Forward 3- Artturi Lehkonen
Forward 4- Tyler Toffoli
Forward 5- Josh Anderson
Forward 6- Philip Danault (UFA)
Forward 7- Jake Evans
Defenseman 1- Shea Weber
Defenseman 2- Jeff Petry
Defenseman 3-Joel Edmundson
Goaltender 1- Carey Price
Notable UFAs- Tomas Tatar, Eric Staal, Jordan Weal, Corey Perry, Michael Frolik, Erik Gustafsson, Jon Merrill
Notable Exempt– Ryan Poehling, Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Alexander Romanov, Jesse Ylonen
Notable Exposed– Jake Allen, Paul Byron, Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, Cale Fleury, Jonathan Drouin
Our Pick– Jake Allen (2.8m)
Our Pick Explanation– Montreal is a confusing team to examine during this pre-protection list submission process, as they only meet the exposure requirements if they opt to expose Jonathan Drouin, which is most likely something GM Marc Bergevin doesn’t want to do. We believe this is where Seattle will make their first of three goaltender selections, as Jake Allen’s reduced cap hit of $2.8 million for the next two seasons is something that certainly can’t be ignored. Allen posted a .907 save percentage in his 29 games with Montreal this season and had an 11-12-5 record in those games. At thirty years old, Allen is perfectly capable backup goaltender, and could potentially Seattle’s eventual starter for the main job as well. We believe this decision is a no-brainer for the Kraken management team, as the other options available aren’t too appealing. Unless however, Drouin is exposed and they can get an asset for taking on the remaining couple years on his contract, in hopes of rejuvenating his career. Again, we need more information out of Montreal before we can put a clear protection list together. More to come from them hopefully.
Nashville Predators
Skater 1- Filip Forsberg
Skater 2- Luke Kunin
Skater 3- Colton Sissons
Skater 4- Calle Jarnkrok
Skater 5- Roman Josi (NMC)
Skater 6- Ryan Ellis
Skater 7- Mattias Ekholm
Skater 8- Alexandre Carrier
Goaltender 1- Juuse Saros
Notable UFAs- Mikael Granlund, Erik Haula, Brad Richardson, Erik Gudbranson
Notable Exempt– Eeli Tolvanen, Philip Tomasino
Notable Exposed– Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Dante Fabbro, Rocco Grimaldi, Nick Cousins
Our Pick– Ryan Johansen (8m)
Our Pick Explanation– The Nashville Predators are hands down the most interesting team to watch in this entire expansion process. With the Viktor Arvidsson deal, the Predators management signaled to us that they are going with the eight skaters and a goalie protection list option, as Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm were automatic protects. This leaves one spot available for either Alexandre Carrier or Dante Fabbro, who are both talented young defensemen. In this scenario, we protected Carrier as he registered a +1.95 rookie season AB score, and Fabbro has yet to register a score above -3 in his two-year career to this point. Regardless, this is where we believe our first significant trade will occur, as we think this is David Poile’s opportunity to move one of Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene’s 8 million dollar cap hit to create much needed space. To do this, we believe Nashville will need to give up their 2021 1st round pick (18th overall) as well as a talented prospect such as Philip Tomasino, or perhaps even Fabbro in order for the Kraken to accept. In this scenario, we believe they would, as we think they would have more interest in Ryan Johansen then Matt Duchene due to the fact that Johansen is younger than Duchene with less term remaining on his deal. Johansen scored seven goals and registered fifteen assists for twenty-two points on a Predators team that barely snuck into the playoffs this season only to be eliminated by the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. Johansen would enter the Kraken organization as one of the faces of the franchise and would almost certainly be their best Center on day one. Along with Johansen, the assets acquired with him could be significant pieces for the expansion team moving forward, making us believe it would be worth GM Ron Francis’ time to consider this option.
New Jersey Devils
Forward 1- Nico Hischier
Forward 2- Yegor Sharangovich
Forward 3- Miles Wood
Forward 4- Jesper Bratt
Forward 5- Pavel Zacha
Forward 6- Nick Merkley
Forward 7- Janne Kuokkanen
Defenseman 1- P.K. Subban
Defenseman 2- Damon Severson
Defenseman 3- Jonas Siegenthaler
Goaltender 1- Mackenzie Blackwood
Notable UFAs- Ryan Murray, Connor Carrick, Aaron Dell
Notable Exempt– Jack Hughes, Jesper Boqvist, Dawson Mercer, Alexander Holtz, Nolan Foote, Ty Smith, Kevin Bahl
Notable Exposed– Andreas Johnsson, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, Will Butcher
Our Pick– Andreas Johnsson (3.4m)
Our Pick Explanation– Similar to the Montreal Canadiens, the New Jersey Devils most likely need to make a move prior to the expansion draft in order to meet exposure requirements. In this scenario, we have them losing Andreas Johnsson to the Kraken, as he would most likely be the odd man out if a lesser forward isn’t signed. Johnsson had the 2nd best AB score on the Devils this season with a +0.2, behind only Jesper Bratt’s +2.45. Career wise, Johnsson has registered positive AB scores in each of his three NHL seasons, including an impressive +5.87 score in his rookie season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. This could be another scenario where the Kraken can earn a draft pick or a prospect in exchange for taking on Johnsson’s remaining salary, as the Devils are rumored to have interest in all of the top available defenseman this offseason such as Seth Jones and Dougie Hamilton. Freeing up $3.25 million in cap space, especially after Johnsson’s disappointing season production wise makes sense for GM Tom Fitzgerald and his group and gifting the Kraken a third round pick to make it happen shouldn’t be something they rule out. However, if they sign another forward before the expansion draft, that signals to us they intend to keep Johnsson, and Seattle would have to chose between Nick Merkley, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, or Will Butcher, which is a situation we would much rather be in if we were Devils management.
New York Islanders
Forward 1- Matthew Barzal
Forward 2- Anders Lee
Forward 3- Brock Nelson
Forward 4- Jordan Eberle
Forward 5- Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Forward 6- Josh Bailey
Forward 7- Anthony Beauvillier
Defenseman 1- Ryan Pulock
Defenseman 2- Adam Pelech
Defenseman 3- Scott Mayfield
Goaltender 1- Semyon Varlamov
Notable UFAs- Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Casey Cizikas, Josh Ho-Sang
Notable Exempt– Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson, Ilya Sorokin
Notable Exposed– Nick Leddy, Kieffer Bellows, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Matt Martin
Our Pick– Kieffer Bellows (RFA)
Our Pick Explanation– Kieffer Bellows is one of the few significant players that aren’t eligible for the NHL’s two seasons of professional experience exposure rule despite him only playing this season in the NHL. Bellows played enough games in the AHL since he was drafted to allow him to be exposed, and quite likely, Seattle’s pick. On a New York Islanders team that was one win away from the Stanley Cup Finals this season, Bellows registered a +2.37 AB score which was the 10th best on the Islanders roster. The former 1st round pick played in fourteen games this season scoring three goals for his only three points. If given the opportunity, we believe Bellows could provide some depth scoring for the Kraken next season, as he recently had thirty-one points in fifty-five games, including twenty-two goals for Bridgeport of the AHL in 2019-20. We don’t see a possibility where the Islanders do not protect the seven forwards we listed, leaving Bellows to be the odd man out. At only twenty-three years old, we believe there is still great potential for him to be an NHL regular, and that this is a no-brainer for the Kraken management group to take a gamble on him.
New York Rangers
Forward 1- Artemi Panarin (NMC)
Forward 2- Mika Zibanejad (NMC)
Forward 3- Chris Kreider (NMC)
Forward 4- Pavel Buchnevich
Forward 5- Filip Chytil
Forward 6- Ryan Strome
Forward 7- Colin Blackwell
Defenseman 1- Jacob Trouba (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Ryan Lindgren
Defenseman 3- Libor Hajek
Goaltender 1- Alexandar Georgiev
Notable UFAs- Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson,
Notable Exempt– Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, Vitaly Kravtsov, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Nils Lundkvist, Braden Schneider, Igor Shesterkin
Notable Exposed– Brett Howden, Julien Gauthier, Kevin Rooney, Anthony DeAngelo
Our Pick– Kevin Rooney (750k)
Our Pick Explanation– The young, up-and-coming New York Rangers are one of the least interesting teams in this expansion draft process due to the fact the majority of their team is exempt as we listed above. However, the Rangers do have one defensive protection slot open, as they’d probably expose Libor Hajek if they had a better option. There could potentially be a trade open, as some teams we’ve already discussed have crowded defensive groups they may prefer to deal than potentially lose for nothing. In this scenario, we assume there is no trade, leaving the Kraken’s best options being Brett Howden, Kevin Rooney, Julien Gauthier, and disgruntled defenseman Anthony DeAngelo, who the Rangers are most likely going to buy out if he isn’t selected. There could be a possibility where the Rangers offer Seattle a pick to take DeAngelo, however, we see them opting to go a cheaper route with less term commitment. Kevin Rooney fits this, as he had a solid season with the Rangers this year. Rooney had a -0.06 AB score this season, which is a steep fall from his +5.66 score he registered the year before across the Hudson with the New Jersey Devils. Despite this negative season, Rooney’s career AB score is a +1.49 in a three-year span, which is more than serviceable for a 3rd-4th liner. Brett Howden appears to be a more popular pick from the Rangers according to other blogs and analysts and we could very much see that happening, however, his career AB is -4.54 over the same three years, including two consecutive -6 or worse seasons in 2018-19 and 2019-20, which is why we’d prefer Rooney. It will be interesting to see if the Rangers do decide to trade for a defenseman prior to the expansion draft, however, we believe all significant players will remain on the roster following Seattle’s decision. They are also rumored to be the frontrunners by many sources in the Jack Eichel sweepstakes, so perhaps dumping DeAngelo’s cap hit on the Kraken to free up room for Eichel makes more sense. We will certainly be monitoring this, but we don’t think an Eichel deal happens until the period after the expansion draft, but prior to the NHL draft.
Ottawa Senators
Forward 1- Evgeni Dadonov
Forward 2- Colin White
Forward 3- Connor Brown
Forward 4- Brady Tkachuk
Forward 5- Drake Batherson
Forward 6- Logan Brown
Forward 7- Nicholas Paul
Defenseman 1- Thomas Chabot
Defenseman 2- Nikita Zaitsev
Defenseman 3- Victor Mete
Goaltender 1- Filip Gustavsson
Notable UFAs- Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov, Ryan Dzingel,
Notable Exempt– Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Shane Pinto, Alex Formenton, Erik Brannstrom, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Artem Zub, Ridly Greig
Notable Exposed– Matt Murray, Chris Tierney, Josh Brown, Vitaly Abramov, Joey Daccord
Our Pick– Joey Daccord (750k)
Our Pick Explanation– Ottawa is another team leaving Seattle very few quality options to take advantage of in this draft. If they decide to leave Nicholas Paul exposed, he would be our selection. However, we are confident this protection list above will be quite similar if not exactly the same as the Senators real list that will be made official on July 17th. This is where Seattle’s second of three goaltenders come in. We would be shocked if Filip Gustavsson were left exposed by Ottawa in this draft, as he is arguably the best goaltender, they have in the organization today. If he is available, we fully expect the Kraken to select him, and for him to compete for their starting job on day one. The Senators have a top-10 pick in the 2021 NHL draft, and with two very talented goaltending prospects available there, makes this loss a bit less significant. Perhaps they try and tempt Seattle to take Matt Murray contract off their hands for a pick or prospect, but we find this very unlikely due to the high availability of goaltenders in this expansion draft. Daccord would be a solid third-string option for the Kraken however, as he is still twenty-four years old, with a few games of NHL experience under his belt. Regardless, Ottawa can only protect one goaltender, and whoever they decide to expose between Daccord and Gustavsson should be the pick in our eyes.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward 1- Claude Giroux (NMC)
Forward 2- Kevin Hayes (NMC)
Forward 3- James van Riemsdyk
Forward 4- Travis Konecny
Forward 5- Sean Couturier
Forward 6- Scott Laughton
Forward 7- Nolan Patrick
Defenseman 1- Ivan Provorov
Defenseman 2- Shayne Gostisbehere
Defenseman 3- Travis Sanheim
Goaltender 1- Carter Hart
Notable UFAs- Brian Elliot, Samuel Morin
Notable Exempt– Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, Cam York,
Notable Exposed– Jakub Voracek, Oskar Lindblom, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Phillipe Myers, Justin Braun, Robert Hagg,
Our Pick– Jakub Voracek (8.25m)
Our Pick Explanation– This is the second of three major trades we project to see come expansion draft night, as the Flyers have stated they plan on leaving Jakub Voracek exposed in an attempt to clear salary and give him a change of scenery. Like the New Jersey Devils, the Flyers are also one of the teams interested in bolstering their defense group this offseason, Seth Jones in particular, and are going to need all the money they can get if they plan on extending Jones immediately upon the trade. Philadelphia has the 13th overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft, and we would see that most likely going to the Kraken in this deal, along with either Morgan Frost, Cam York, Joel Farabee, or other draft picks in order to take all of Voracek’s remaining salary. Voracek has usually been a positive AB player throughout his career, as he has a +0.27 career AB score in thirteen years of data. However, his last four seasons have been on a weird pattern of highly positive, then very negative, back to positive, then back to negative (+4.77, -8.18, +7.56, -4.01). He had a solid point production season this year, as he scored nine goals, and registered thirty-four assists in fifty-three games for the Flyers, as well as the -4.01 individual season AB score we already mentioned. Voracek would instantly become Seattle’s most dynamic winger and could be a potential linemate of Ryan Johansen’s on the Kraken’s first line. It would certainly be fun to watch, and Voracek’s contract expires at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season, making him thirty-four years old. This would be Seattle’s third 1st round pick in the 2021 NHL draft, and they would appear to be doing something similar to the Golden Knights’ expansion strategy, as the Knights also had three first rounders to start their franchise off with through expansion draft deals. The difference between them would be that Seattle is acquiring impact players that can help them right away, as opposed to Vegas just collecting cap dumps for players that never suited up for them, such as David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski. It will surely be something interesting to monitor, and we should get more news of these events closer to the actual expansion draft date of July 21st,2021.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward 1- Sidney Crosby (NMC)
Forward 2- Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
Forward 3- Jake Guentzel
Forward 4- Bryan Rust
Forward 5- Jason Zucker
Forward 6- Brandon Tanev
Forward 7- Kasperi Kapanen
Defenseman 1- Kris Letang
Defenseman 2- Michael Matheson
Defenseman 3- Marcus Pettersson
Goaltender 1- Tristan Jarry
Notable UFAs- Colton Sceviour, Cody Ceci, Juuso Riikola
Notable Exempt– John Marino, Pierre-Olivier Joseph
Notable Exposed– Brian Dumoulin, Jared McCann, Zach Aston-Reese, Teddy Blueger, Sam Lafferty
Our Pick– Jared McCann (2.94m)
Our Pick Explanation– Jared McCann has the opportunity to be Seattle’s version of William Karlsson in our opinion. Like Karlsson, McCann also had an insanely high individual season AB score heading into the expansion draft, as he registered an outstanding +11.74 score in 2020-21, to Karlsson’s +6.64 in 2016-17. Jared McCann also had the highest AB score on the Pittsburgh Penguins team this season with the +11.74, and even contributed 14 goals and 18 assists for 32 points in 43 games. He would instantly be Seattle’s first or second line center, and we fully expect this to be the pick should McCann be left available. It’s entirely possible that the Penguins expose Jason Zucker or Brandon Tanev instead to protect McCann, and in that situation, whoever is left exposed of those three is the selection in our opinion. We could also see a trade scenario happen here so that Pittsburgh doesn’t end up losing one of those three players for nothing, perhaps in a similar deal to the Viktor Arvidsson deal with Los Angeles. We’ll be watching this closely for the next week leading up to protection list submissions without question.
San Jose Sharks
Forward 1- Logan Couture
Forward 2- Timo Meier
Forward 3- Tomas Hertl
Forward 4- Kevin Labanc
Forward 5- Ryan Donato
Forward 6- Dylan Gambrell
Forward 7- Rudolfs Balcers
Defenseman 1- Erik Karlsson (NMC)
Defenseman 2- Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC)
Defenseman 3- Brent Burns
Goaltender 1- Martin Jones
Notable UFAs- Marcus Sorensen, Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Greg Pateryn
Notable Exempt– Ryan Merkley, Alexander Barabanov, Noah Gregor, Joel Kellman
Notable Exposed– Evander Kane, Matt Nieto, Radim Simek
Our Pick– Matt Nieto (700k)
Our Pick Explanation– Matt Nieto is a perfect 4th line caliber player for the Seattle Kraken to take a chance on. He doesn’t make as much money as other players left exposed and is by far the best AB wise of the group. While Evander Kane and his 49 points in 56 games may be appealing in this scenario, his off the ice issues could prevent him from being selected. With Nieto, Seattle gets a player who scored five goals and two assists in twenty-eight games averaging around 14 minutes of ice time per game. Nieto had the 7th best AB score on an abysmal San Jose Sharks team this season with a -3.22, which is the first negative AB season he registered since 2016-17. His career AB score is -0.88 in the eight years of data we have on him. San Jose is another team giving Seattle very few intriguing options, but taking a flyer on Nieto is something that we could definitely see them doing given the choices.
St. Louis Blues
Forward 1- Ryan O’Reilly
Forward 2- Brayden Schenn
Forward 3- David Perron
Forward 4- Oskar Sundqvist
Forward 5- Samuel Blais
Forward 6- Robert Thomas
Forward 7- Jordan Kyrou
Defenseman 1- Torey Krug
Defenseman 2- Justin Faulk
Defenseman 3- Colton Parayko
Goaltender 1- Jordan Binnington
Notable UFAs- Jaden Schwartz, Tyler Bozak, Mike Hoffman
Notable Exempt– Dakota Joshua, Klim Kostin, Jake Neighbours
Notable Exposed– Vladimir Tarasenko, Zach Sanford, Marco Scandella, Vince Dunn
Our Pick– Vladimir Tarasenko (7.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– This is the third and most significant trade of our projection article. Vladimir Tarasenko recently requested a trade out of St. Louis, and we believe Seattle is a perfect place for him to attempt his comeback from injuries to return to the elite player we all know and love. He has been one of the best players in the league in all facets, including AB throughout his time in the NHL, as he has a +6.79 career AB score over a nine year period, including two seasons where he registered +15 or higher individual scores. This season however, he registered his first negative season of his career as a result of his injuries, yet still managed to record 14 points in 24 games with the Blues. This is another example of a team desperately needing money to sign their high profile restricted free agents such as Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, so clearing Tarasenko’s $7.5 million in one trade is definitely something we expect GM Doug Armstrong to look into. There have been rumors that Tarasenko wanted to play for an Eastern Conference contender such as the New York Islanders, Boston Bruins, or Carolina Hurricanes, however, a trade to Seattle would be out of his control, and if Doug Armstrong were willing to part with St. Louis’ 16th overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft, they would probably get their cap relief. This trade would give Seattle their instant face of the franchise, as well as their first line winger to play with either Johansen or McCann in our projection, in addition to their 4th first round pick. This trade is the one we hope to see happen the most, as we feel it would be a great storyline to monitor until the end of Tarasenko’s contract. In some ways, he could be Seattle’s version of James Neal, as a healthy Tarasenko is a shoo-in for 25-30 goals and 60-70 points without question.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward 1- Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
Forward 2- Steven Stamkos (NMC)
Forward 3- Brayden Point
Forward 4- Ondrej Palat
Forward 5- Anthony Cirelli
Forward 6- Yanni Gourde
Forward 7- Mathieu Joseph
Defenseman 1- Victor Hedman
Defenseman 2- Mikhail Sergachev
Defenseman 3- Ryan McDonagh
Goaltender 1- Andrei Vasilevskiy
Notable UFAs- Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn
Notable Exempt– NONE
Notable Exposed– Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, Patrick Maroon, Mitchell Stephens, Ross Colton, Erik Cernak, Jan Rutta, Cal Foote
Our Pick– Erik Cernak (2.95m)
Our Pick Explanation– The back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions are also one of the most interesting teams to watch this expansion season due to the extreme amount of organizational talent that they have. Everyone is aware of the Lightning’s need to clear cap space, as they were about 18 million over the cap this playoff season. Doing this will likely require them to move one or both of Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn, as we see them being attached to the Seattle pick, whoever it may be. In this scenario however, we believe whichever defenseman is exposed between Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh is the pick. There is a realistic scenario that we see where Tampa goes with the eight skater and a goalie option, protecting Kucherov, Cirelli, Stamkos, and Point with the four D-men. Assuming our protection list above is the actual scenario, then Cernak and his +3.32 individual AB score in 2020-21 is the selection without question. He’d be an immediate top-4 defenseman in Seattle and could thrive under a bigger role. He could be Seattle’s Shea Theodore, with the potential to be even better, as he has a +6.08 career AB score in three seasons compared to Theodore’s +2.71 in six seasons. We will certainly be monitoring any trade scenarios that could be involved here and wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle decided to go with Cal Foote, leaving Tampa in a deeper hole cap wise than they already are. It’ll definitely be interesting to see.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Skater 1- Auston Matthews
Skater 2- Mitch Marner
Skater 3- William Nylander
Skater 4- John Tavares (NMC)
Skater 5- Morgan Reilly
Skater 6- Jake Muzzin
Skater 7- T.J. Brodie
Skater 8- Travis Dermott
Goaltender 1- Jack Campbell
Notable UFAs- Zach Hyman, Riley Nash, Nick Foligno, Alex Galchenyuk, Joe Thornton, Zach Bogosian, Ben Hutton, Frederik Andersen, David Rittich
Notable Exempt– Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Robertson, Rodion Amirov, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren
Notable Exposed– Alex Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall, Wayne Simmonds, Adam Brooks, Jason Spezza, Justin Holl
Our Pick– Alex Kerfoot (3.5m)
Our Pick Explanation– With Toronto’s recent extension of Travis Dermott, we believe they intend to protect him in the upcoming expansion draft, and that the eight skater option is the most likely for them to proceed with. Many of their forwards are unrestricted free agents, and several of the exposed forwards are older, less desirable pieces for Seattle. In this 4-4-1 option, Seattle would need to decide between Alex Kerfoot and Justin Holl, and we believe they should select Kerfoot after his very solid season with the Leafs playing a variety of different roles. He can play on the penalty kill, power play, and anywhere up and down the lineup like he did this season in Toronto. His $3.5 million cap hit is a moveable deal if Seattle decides to move off of him down the road, but a center group of Johansen, McCann, and Kerfoot with Matthew Beniers coming by way of the draft, is certainly very appealing. Kerfoot had the best individual AB season of his career this year with a +1.4, as well as his only positive season to date in four years. We believe he is ready for a bigger role, and playing under his former assistant coach in Dave Hakstol, who is familiar with his skillset, could lead to better production. Kerfoot had twenty-three points in fifty-six games this year with the Leafs and was one of their better playoff performers as well. All this being said, we could definitely see Seattle taking a similar approach to the Vegas expansion draft and selecting a large number of defenseman, making a Justin Holl pick here very unsurprising should it happen. This is another situation where the actual protection lists should give us a better indication of everyone’s mindset, and we will be monitoring it very closely in the coming week.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward 1- Elias Pettersson
Forward 2- Brock Boeser
Forward 3- J.T. Miller
Forward 4- Tanner Pearson
Forward 5- Jake Virtanen
Forward 6- Bo Horvat
Forward 7- Kole Lind
Defenseman 1- Tyler Myers
Defenseman 2- Olli Juolevi
Defenseman 3- Nate Schmidt
Goaltender 1- Thatcher Demko
Notable UFAs- Brandon Sutter, Sven Baertschi, Jimmy Vesey, Alex Edler, Travis Hamonic
Notable Exempt– Quinn Hughes, Nils Hoglander, Vasily Podkolzin, Jett Woo, Michael DiPietro
Notable Exposed– Louie Eriksson, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Tyler Motte, Zack MacEwen, Matthew Highmore, Madison Bowey, Braden Holtby
Our Pick– Zack MacEwen (825k)
Our Pick Explanation– Vancouver is another team that doesn’t have very many interesting options for the Kraken to chose from. Several members of the Vancouver media have expressed their thoughts on the expansion draft in their work (podcasts, articles, etc.) and we believe they have some of the better content available for fans outside of the Canucks base, who want to learn more about the state of the team. In listening to them, we get the feeling that the consensus is that the Canucks and their fans aren’t very worried about this expansion draft, as the majority of their good players are either exempt or locks to be protected, potentially giving GM Jim Benning an opportunity to move one of their bad contracts in exchange for cap relief to aid in the extension processes of franchise cornerstones Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. We can definitely see a possibility where Benning gives Seattle picks or prospects to take on one of the Eriksson, Beagle, or Roussel deals, however, in this situation, we project them selecting Zack MacEwen. MacEwen is a serviceable bottom-six forward who had a -2.07 AB score this season, which happened to be the 8th best score on a disappointing Canucks team this season. MacEwen’s career AB score is -1.55, which is acceptable given that he does provide some grit and toughness. There are some rumors that Seattle would take Braden Holtby to potentially be their version of Marc-Andre Fleury in Vegas, however, there are better goaltenders available in our opinion that are younger with less term. We could still see it happen if Benning were to add a pick or prospect in, yet we believe Seattle taking a cheap forward is a much more likely option.
Washington Capitals
Forward 1- Alex Ovechkin (UFA)
Forward 2- Nicklas Backstrom (NMC)
Forward 3- Evgeny Kuznetsov
Forward 4- T.J. Oshie
Forward 5- Anthony Mantha
Forward 6- Tom Wilson
Forward 7- Lars Eller
Defenseman 1- John Carlson
Defenseman 2- Dmitry Orlov
Defenseman 3- Justin Schultz
Goaltender 1- Ilya Samsonov
Notable UFAs- Michael Raffl, Zdeno Chara, Craig Anderson
Notable Exempt– Connor McMichael, Alexander Alexeyev
Notable Exposed– Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Brenden Dillon, Nick Jensen, Michal Kempny, Vitek Vanecek
Our Pick– Vitek Vanecek (715k)
Our Pick Explanation– Seattle gets their starting goaltender with this pick, and in our opinion, the best goaltender available in expansion. In 37 games as the Capitals starter this season, Vanecek posted a 21-10-4 record with 2 shutouts and a .908 save percentage, leading the Capitals to a playoff berth where they were eliminated by the Boston Bruins in the first round. He is a restricted free agent, and at twenty-five years old, has a chance to be a quality starter for the Kraken from day one. This choice also allows Seattle to reach the minimum number of goaltenders selected (3) in the expansion draft. We could see Washington protecting Vanecek and exposing Ilya Samsonov, and in that case, Samsonov would be the pick. Like Ottawa, we believe the selection from Washington will definitely be a goalie barring a pre-expansion draft trade, but we will continue to monitor the Kraken’s interest in a defenseman like Brenden Dillon perhaps.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward 1- Blake Wheeler (NMC)
Forward 2- Mark Scheifele
Forward 3- Pierre-Luc Dubois
Forward 4- Kyle Connor
Forward 5- Nikolaj Ehlers
Forward 6- Adam Lowry
Forward 7- Mason Appleton
Defenseman 1- Josh Morrissey
Defenseman 2- Neal Pionk
Defenseman 3- Logan Stanley
Goaltender 1- Connor Hellebuyck
Notable UFAs- Paul Stastny, Mathieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, Trevor Lewis, Jordie Benn, Derek Forbort
Notable Exempt– Cole Perfetti, Kristian Vesalainen, Ville Heinola
Notable Exposed– Jansen Harkins, Dominic Toninato, Dylan DeMelo, Nathan Beaulieu
Our Pick– Dylan DeMelo (3m)
Our Pick Explanation– The last player in our mock expansion draft is Jets defenseman Dylan DeMelo. DeMelo was acquired by the Jets at last year’s trade deadline in exchange for a 3rd round pick from the Ottawa Senators. This season with the Jets, DeMelo registered his first positive AB season since his rookie year in 2015-16 with a +1.34, a clear sign of improvement in our eyes. DeMelo would be someone the Jets would most likely protect under normal circumstances, however, with the emergence of recent first round pick Logan Stanley, it is logical to assume the Jets would choose to keep the younger, more upside Stanley over DeMelo. That being said, Seattle gets another solid, impact defenseman to build its inaugural team, to conclude the expansion draft.
Recap
We will now provide a positional depth chart. In addition, we will also compile a list of potential lines to see how this Kraken team we just assembled would look on the ice compared to the rest of the Pacific Division.
Centers
1C- Ryan Johansen NSH (-2.59 2020-21 AB) (-1.5 Career AB)
2C- Jared McCann PIT (+11.74 2020-21 AB) (+4.11 Career AB)
3C- Alex Kerfoot TOR (+1.4 2020-21 AB) (-2.87 Career AB)
4C- Jason Dickinson DAL (+1.34 2020-21 AB) (+3.37 Career AB)
Extra- Carter Rowney ANA (-0.76 2020-21 AB) (-1.03 Career AB)
Left Wingers
1LW- Andreas Johnsson NJD (+0.20 2020-21 AB) (+2.39 Career AB)
2LW- Warren Foegele CAR (+3.62 2020-21 AB) (+0.27 Career AB)
3LW- Kieffer Bellows NYI (+2.37 2020-21 AB) (+2.37 Career AB)
4LW- Eric Robinson CBJ (+3.77 2020-21 AB) (+4.55 Career AB)
Extra- Rasmus Asplund BUF (+2.31 2020-21 AB) (-0.55 Career AB)
Right Wingers
1RW- Vladimir Tarasenko STL (-1.64 2020-21 AB) (+6.79 Career AB)
2RW- Jakub Voracek PHI (-4.01 2020-21 AB) (+0.27 Career AB)
3RW- Tyler Pitlick ARI (-1.21 2020-21 AB) (+1.83 Career AB)
4RW- Matt Nieto SJS (-3.22 2020-21 AB) (-0.88 Career AB)
Extra- Zack MacEwen VAN (-2.07 2020-21 AB) (-1.54 Career AB)
Extra- Kevin Rooney NYR (-0.06 2020-21 AB) (+1.49 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 1
LD- Ryan Graves COL (+3.02 2020-21 AB) (+6.24 Career AB)
RD- Chris Tanev CGY (+6.81 2020-21 AB) (+2.56 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 2
LD- Carson Soucy MIN (+6.96 2020-21 AB) (+7.62 Career AB)
RD- Erik Cernak TBL (+2.45 2020-21 AB) (+6.08 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 3
LD- Olli Maatta LAK (-4.01 2020-21 AB) (+2.41 Career AB)
RD- Radko Gudas FLA (+2.62 2020-21 AB) (-1.54 Career AB)
Defense Pairing 4
LD- Riley Stillman CHI (+1.83 2020-21 AB) (+0.21 Career AB)
RD- Christian Djoos DET (-10.71 2020-21 AB) (-0.04 Career AB)
Extra
Caleb Jones EDM (-2.78 2020-21 AB) (-3.6 Career AB)
Jakub Zboril BOS (-0.68 2020-21 AB) (-0.68 Career AB)
Goaltender 1- Vitek Vanecek WSH
Goaltender 2- Jake Allen MTL
Goaltender 3- Joey Daccord OTT
Team AB 2020-21= +20.08 (2nd in Pacific Division)
Projected Team AB 2021-22 (Career AB)= +38.75 (2nd in Pacific Division)
Obviously, these protection lists and selections we just outlined will be different from the official lists teams will submit on July 17th. However, we wanted to outline that with proper management, we believe the Kraken will have immediate success out of the gate as well as a pipeline in place for the future because of the trades we illustrated. When Vegas was entering the league, our data collection was only a four year sample size. Today, we have expanded it to a fourteen year sample size, as well as data for all coaches in the sample. We believe we have a much better idea now for predicting whether Seattle will have success or not, and we can’t wait for more information to be released so that we can dissect it in our new format. Shortly after the publishing of this article, we are going to go back in time to see if we could have seen Vegas’ rise coming with the data, we now have prior to the 2017-18. We have so much more to come, so please stay tuned and keep reading!
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