Projecting A New Taylor Hall Contract For 2020-2021

On December 16th, 2019, the Arizona Coyotes acquired Taylor Hall from the New Jersey Devils in exchange for a 2020 1st round pick, a conditional 3rd round pick, and prospects Kevin Bahl, Nick Merkley, and Nate Schnarr. The conditional 3rd becomes a 2nd if the Coyotes either win a playoff round or Hall re-signs in Arizona. If both of these conditions are met, it will become a 1st round pick.

 

In his time in Arizona this season, Hall scored 10 goals and registered 17 assists for 27 points in 35 games played. He also had a solid 24:23 takeaway/giveaway ratio, as well as a solid 6:13 penalty taken/drawn ratio. Hall registered a -2.03 individual AB score this season during his stints in New Jersey and Arizona but has a career AB score of +0.5.

 

The Arizona Coyotes are in a bit of a cap crunch. Clayton Keller’s $7.15 million extension is just about to start, and the team has around $5 million in cap space for their 2020-2021 roster. If they want to retain Hall’s services, it seems likely they won’t be able to bring back penalty kill specialist Brad Richardson, or veteran Carl Soderberg. They will most likely need to make a trade at some point to dump salary, as $5 million certainly won’t be enough for Hall. Unless something changes between Hall’s representatives and Arizona management, Hall appears to be set to hit the open market as the best free agent of the 2020 class. Like John Tavares and Artemi Panarin did in back to back free agency periods, Hall is expected to earn a large amount of salary from a needy team.

 

We ran Hall through our arbitration analyzer and found that an appropriate comparison is the contract of fellow 2010 Top-2 pick, Tyler Seguin. Seguin signed his extension with the Dallas Stars on September 13th, 2018 and will make $9.85 million through 2026-2027. Given the fact that Hall may hit the open market, we think his contract could be in the 9.5-10.5 million range, as we don’t believe he will quite reach $11 million+ like Tavares and Panarin did.

 

Should the NHL resume play, Arizona is in a good position to contend for a playoff spot for the first time since they lost in the Western Conference Finals in 2012. They currently sit four points out of the 2nd wildcard spot in the West, with a 33-29-8 record in 70 games. However, they have played one more game than the Nashville Predators, who currently hold the position. It will hopefully be an interesting next couple of months in hockey, and we hope that the NHL can still salvage the playoffs this season at least. More to come.

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