This article below is very interesting. There are some striking similarities between the playoff predictions of goals above replacement analytics and the Advanced Bracton mistake minimization approach. We have concluded same about CAR, TOR and OTT in the east and CHI, NSH and EDM in the west…..and published our work at roughly the same time. Eerie.
These prospective rankings are pretty close to ours, especially in the east. While we dislike confirmation bias as a rule, we are intrigued as to how the models can converge from two entirely different viewpoints. What is even more fascinating is how the punditry is WAY off from what the analytics crowd is opining. Exhibit A
The “experts” who are entertaining the prospects of teams like BUF, DAL, and most notably TB and ANA, are definitely not stat geeks. However, that doesn’t make them wrong……In fact Sportsnet’s own staff is not compelled by analytics. Have a look at this…….
Wow. Only one expert predicting the Wild to win the cup? And almost no one loves the Leafs chances this year. Again, very interesting.