We haven’t forgotten about you

Dear readers, please be patient while we tabulate this year’s “predictions” regarding what we think will be the order of finish in each conference.  This is a herculean effort, no small undertaking, a massive job, etc.  We are awaiting final roster cuts and therefore should have something out before the puck drops this week.

In the meantime, we will be publishing our rank calculations throughout the season and hope that we have more success in projecting statistics than we did last year (although last year was not hideous…except for Calgary).  Some observations:

  1. Since our project and approach are philosophically novel (and therefore potentially valuable) we suffer from a lack of information regarding first year players in the league.  As we go through what appear good approximations of the final rosters, it is apparent that we will struggle to project the impact of Sean Kuraly in Boston for example.  This will skew results, guaranteed.  We are still fine tuning the way we evaluate such players at the outset of their careers.
  2. We are noticing that players with low ABs have been largely cast aside, waived, cut, released, traded, etc. while guys with high ABs tend to secure employment (similar to what took place last year).  It seems we are not the only ones paying attention to mistake propensity.  If only it were universally quantifiable before these guys made an NHL club………
  3. The players that are extremely low on the AB scale are often being replaced with very young (under 21) year old organically grown or recently drafted prospects.  Perhaps teams are demanding to know what they have earlier this year?  We shall see, but this influx of under 21 talent makes a prospective study with limited data quite challenging (but hopefully not impossible).  Is this the year of Dylan Strome?  Who knows.

OK, disclaimers aside, we are just as excited to get this season rolling as you are.  Stay tuned for the data dump and the resulting swath of accolades and harsh criticisms that follow.  We can take it if you can because, after all, its a free for all!

 

 

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