Preliminary AB projections for next season by team and 2014-2015 AB scores and rankings

AB 2015 AB 2016
NYR 43.29 1 TB 36.68
TB 31.88 5 NYR 33.34
CHI 20.06 7 WSH 22.19
MIN 17.12 11 MIN 19.81
WSH 15.87 9 NYI 14.05
NYI 14.05 10 CGY 13.21
CGY 13.11 16 CHI 9.83
STL 11.75 4 NSH 7.57
MTL 7.27 2 OTT 4.62
NSH 5.16 6 LA 4.19
LA 4.01 18 MTL 3.48
OTT 3.36 13 STL -4.69
ANA 2.43 3 VAN -5.96
BOS -4.46 17 DET -6.45
DET -9.09 12 BOS -6.53
PIT -11.65 15 ANA -9.94
VAN -13.09 8 DAL -15.56
WPG -17.43 14 WPG -17.46
COL -20.02 21 FLA -19.18
FLA -20.86 20 PIT -20.88
DAL -24.27 19 SJ -27.06
SJ -30.99 22 COL -29.71
CAR -34.35 26 CBS -32.82
CBS -40.23 23 CAR -35.65
NJ -42.33 25 PHI -42.1
PHI -50 24 NJ -46.82
TOR -72.65 27 TOR -59.78
PHX -89.69 29 EDM -84.85
EDM -92.03 28 BUF -88.18
BUF -101.99 30 PHX -99.82

The first data column is the Advanced Bracton scores generated during the 2014-2015. The second column shows the 2014-2015 regular season ranking for each team. The third numbers are the PRELIMINARY projection for next season, without considering the final depth charts. These will be updated in late September. Teams with positive AB made the playoffs in all cases except Los Angeles last year. All teams that made the playoffs advanced to the second round if their AB was higher than that of their opponents.

EDIT – Compare this list to those found in the following article in which the author uses shot based statistics to predict the overall order of finish in the NHL for 2014-2015.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nhl/projecting-2014-15-nhl-standings-using-fenwick-corsi-possession-statistics.aspx

We found it interesting that the difference between the shot based statistics and our work were in some cases polar opposites.  Tell us what you think.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s