Too often, we are blown away by the contracts signed by professional athletes. In the Tarasenko case we are not. When we were constructing the Advanced Bracton score, we noted that Tarasenko (now also known as “Tara-Banko”) posted numbers that were off the charts relative to the rest of the NHL. He is such an unusual talent, that his +9.00 AB was best in the entire league. In other words, not only is he worth $7.5mm per year over the next eight years, he is actually worth more. Heck, St. Louis paid Paul Stasny almost this amount last offseason to produce -0.99 AB. That’s 10 goals fewer at the margin for the same price! Amazing.
As such, despite the headline figure of …..gasp……$60 milllll-llllion, the Blues did a great job in securing a generational talent, at what we believe are approximately market rates, believe it or not. In return, and barring injury, St. Louis has secured a young player who has likely not even reached his prime statistically, and can now use him as the core around which to build the team.
Unfortunately the Blues’ core will not include TJ, “O-lympics,” Oshie, who was also a top 20 marginal goal producer at an outstanding +6.56 AB. Throw in Kyle Brodziak (-4.28 AB) and Troy Brower +0.74 AB) and the Blues are at least 10 goals worse than they were last year. In fact their team AB has gone from a solid 11.75 to a precarious +2.52. While this team score will likely not result in St. Louis missing the playoffs, they will likely slide to about 5th or 6th in the Western Conference based on our preliminary estimated order of finish. This probability would have been more severely impacted if the Blues had lost Tarasenko and Oshie (and Jackman). For now, it appears as if the Blues are on tap for another decent season in 2016, lead of course by their 60 million dollar man.