Spearman’s Rho calculation for a quarter of the season

We wanted to update you on our pre-season rankings now that roughly a quarter of the season has been played. In all, we have 28 teams within an acceptable range and only two outliers.  These outliers, (OTT and NYI) however have been spectacularly wrong and have mightily skewed our forecasts in the east.

In the east, our Rho score is 0.12, which is hardly significant or predictive.  However, this number is directly the result of Ottawa being ranked neat the bottom of the conference and presently tracking fourth overall while the Islanders, projected 5th, are in last place.  If we were to simply flip these two teams, our score would be 0.48……or 0.36 higher than today.  This would be a very satisfactory number, and not achieving it thus far, is solely because of the surprise (to us) performance of two teams.  Can the Islanders really be that bad and/or OTT’s defense play above themselves for an entire year?

In the west, we are tracking at 0.57.  We are very pleased with this, and had it not been for the stellar early start for EDM, this number would be simply outstanding.  Please check back with us for more updates as the season progresses.  We plan to be more active on this blog than we have been for the first two months of the season.


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