UPDATED SPEARMAN’S RHO for ADVANCED BRACTON SCORES

Even though it is way too early in the season for this sample to be meaningful, we wanted to introduce the Spearman’s Rho rank calculation for the Advanced Bracton Score.   So far in the eastern conference, we are nailing it – with a 78% Rho coefficient (great correlation between our stat and actual).  In the western conference on the other hand, while it looks like we are lagging badly, there are only a couple of teams obstructing us from a score over 0.50 and there is a wide disparity of games played and point similarities.  Arizona is a big surprise to us, as is Winnipeg.  They are both playing way above our expectations so far.  On the flip side, MIN is now under-performing a little, as is LA.  Our big egg on the face moment is the Calgary Flames.  However, if they can win a couple games in the next week, our western conference RHO will zoom higher.  Notably, we are doing well with our bullish calls on SJ and VAN and our mid to bearish calls on CHI and ANA.

Here’s the data – Eastern Conference RHO = + 0.785 – Actual rank, Expected rank,

 Montréal 1. TB – +33.07 5 1 4
 NY Rangers 2. NYR – +14.56 2 2 0
 Tampa Bay 3. NYI – +8.04 1 3 -2
 NY Islanders 4. OTT – +3.55 3 4 -1
 Ottawa 5. MTL – +1.27 4 5 -1
 Washington 6. DET – (-5.26) 9 6 3
 Florida 7. PIT – (-8.41) 12 7 5
 Detroit 8. BOS (-9.37) 6 8 -2
 Philadelphia 9. WSH (-13.67) 14 9 5
 Pittsburgh 10. CAR (-24.03) 7 10 -3
 Boston 11. TOR (-35.07) 8 11 -3
 Toronto 12. FLA (-36.43) 11 12 -1
 New Jersey 13. CBJ (-43.32) 15 13 2
 Buffalo 14. PHI (-59.87) 16 14 2
 Carolina 15. NJD (-66.17) 10 15 -5
 Columbus 16. BUF (-97.21) 13 16 -3

Western Conference RHO = + 0.0673 – Actual rank, Expected rank,

 St. Louis 1. MIN +18.03 8 1 7
 Dallas 2. CGY +12.72 6 2 4
 Nashville 3. LA – +1.50 4 3 1
 Winnipeg 4. NSH (-2.28) 12 4 8
 San Jose 5. VAN (-6.64) 7 5 2
 Vancouver 6. DAL (-10.23) 5 6 -1
 Minnesota 7. SJ (-14.79) 1 7 -6
 Arizona 8. STL (-19.51) 14 8 6
 Chicago 9. CHI (-24.44) 9 9 0
 Colorado 10. ANA (-45.90) 11 10 1
 Los Angeles 11. COL (-50.00) 3 11 -8
 Edmonton 12. WPG (-52.71) 13 12 1
 Anaheim 13. EDM (-65.77) 10 13 -3
 Calgary 14. ARZ (-117.89) 2 14 -12

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