They’re here. The prognostications for the upcoming season are finally provided below. This was no easy task; we went line by line, player by player and modeled what we think the outcomes will be for the upcoming season (by team).
Prediction is a significant departure from our previously retrospective work of the past two seasons. Of course we have not fit our statistic to prior data; we derived our metric based on a philosophy that mistake minimization wins hockey games. We then tested our parameters against actual results. What we found was compelling, especially with respect to order of finish of an NHL team in both the conference and overall.
As a result, we are now going to try our hand at seeing the future. With the Advanced Bracton as the crystal ball, we have derived a score by player and by team in the aggregate based off what appear to be close to final depth charts, offseason moves and transactions. The AB is in the first column, while the second column is AB adjusted for projected games played (factoring in injuries, injury history, depth, player age, etc). Our order of finish is the average of the two. If we had to pick one metric on which to be measured, it would be the game adjusted AB (column 2).
Here is what we are forecasting. See notes below.
ADV BRACTON GAME ADJUSTED AB PREDICTED ORDER
TB 33.04 TB 34.80 TB 1
NYR 26.32 NYR 14.73 NYR 2
NYI 10.99 NYI 9.37 NYI 3
MTL 9.12 OTT 4.76 OTT 4
OTT 6.32 MTL 0.55 MTL 5
WSH 5.95 DET (5.26) WSH 6
BOS (2.82) BOS (10.60) DET 7
DET (5.08) WSH (12.67) BOS 8
PIT (14.58) CAR (21.68) PIT 9
FLA (22.89) PIT (21.90) CAR 10
CBS (26.59) FLA (38.03) FLA 11
CAR (30.14) TOR (39.68) TOR 12
TOR (33.05) CBS (47.29) CBS 13
NJ (42.06) PHI (60.92) PHI 14
PHI (44.79) NJ (66.03) NJ 15
BUF (63.85) BUF (93.75) BUF 16
MIN 19.95 CGY 18.13 MIN 1
CGY 13.61 MIN 13.63 CGY 2
STL 5.62 LA 1.50 LA 3
NSH 4.15 NSH (3.67) NSH 4
LA 1.69 SJ (6.26) STL 5
CHI (2.08) DAL (8.28) DAL 6
VAN (6.87) STL (13.46) VAN 7
DAL (10.81) VAN (13.82) SJ 8
WPG (11.98) CHI (20.73) CHI 9
SJ (13.53) WPG (40.95) WPG 10
ANA (14.34) ANA (45.90) ANA 11
COL (26.57) COL (48.40) COL 12
EDM (59.82) EDM (64.24) EDM 13
PHX (71.96) PHX (114.01) PHX 14
Notes – this is where we will see if AB finds things that conventional wisdom, eye tests, Vegas, or other statistical metrics do not.
1) TB is our favorite to win the Stanley Cup – they will play either CGY or MIN in the finals.
2) PIT may appear to have improved in the offseason, but our numbers do not suggest this to be the case. We thought WAS initially was on the road to greatness but may have actually taken a step back.
3) CHI had a very rough offseason and the Patrick Kane controversy does not help matters. This may be a tough sled for Blackhawk fans.
4) This is finally the year that ANA is exposed for its flaws and misses the playoffs. How they finished first with a +10 season goal differential baffled us. With offseason moves negative to AB, this differential will become a deficit, IMO.
5) MIN, CGY, OTT, SJ and MTL appear to be better on paper than most people would surmise. DAL is the most improved, and they should also have Seguin (and Nichushkin) back for a whole season. Should be fun in Big D.
6) Other surprises, at least to us, were that CBS did not score higher, SJ with a couple moves (Martin and Ward and some addition by subtraction, thanks John Scott), look to be at least middle of the road this year.
7) TOR will not be anywhere near the abject disaster it was last year. PHX however, will be (unless Domi, Duclair and Strome somehow turn into the rookie gods, Calgary style).
8) Speaking of rookie phenoms, despite all their virtues, Eichel and McDavid would have to clone themselves a few times and get 4 years older, in order to make enough of an impact to drive the works in progress in EDM and BUF.
9) STL, NSH and LA will be very competitive in spite of the offseason drama in LA, the possible reliance on rookie depth in NSH, and the significant roster changes in STL.
10) VAN will squeak back into the playoffs and have a much more solid season than their amazing fans may think at this juncture.
We are looking forward to what will undoubtedly be an exciting season. What is awesome at our outpost is that we finally get to put the Advanced Bracton to work on a go forward basis. We will put this post in a time capsule and revisit it around mid year.